St. Truiden vs Lommel United Prediction & Betting Tips 18/10/2026

St. Truiden vs Lommel United preview

In the Belgium Cup fixture, St. Truiden faces Lommel United with 30% chances for St. Truiden to win, 27% for a draw, and 42% for Lommel United. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which aligns with the expected goals of 1.26 for St. Truiden and 1.53 for Lommel United.

Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with St. Truiden recording three losses in their last five matches, while Lommel United has two wins in their last three. The model suggests a 53% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 57% probability for both teams to score. However, if St. Truiden can improve their form, it may challenge the expected outcome.

St. Truiden vs Lommel United: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	St. Truiden	Draw	Lommel United
Model	30%	27%	42%
Market	—	—	—
Published	30%	27%	42%
Edge	—	—	—

Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

St. Truiden and Lommel United expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.26St. Truiden

1.53Lommel United

Total expected goals: 2.78
Attack rating (St. Truiden / Lommel United): 0.96 / 0.88
Defence rating (St. Truiden / Lommel United): 1.08 / 0.66

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

St. Truiden vs Lommel United score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.4% 8.2% 7.2% 3.7% 2.0% 1 6.6% 13.0% 9.1% 4.6% 2.5% 2 4.9% 7.5% 5.7% 2.9% 1.6% 3 2.0% 3.1% 2.4% 1.2% 0.7% 4+ 0.8% 1.3% 1.0% 0.5% 0.3%

Rows: St. Truiden goals. Columns: Lommel United goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

St. Truiden vs Lommel United goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%

Over 1.5 78%

Over 2.5 53%

Over 3.5 30%

Both teams to score: 57%
No goals (0–0): 7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for St. Truiden vs Lommel United

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	St. Truiden	30%	3.31
	Draw	27%	3.64
	Lommel United	42%	2.36
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	53%	1.90
	Under 2.5	47%	2.11
Both teams to score	Yes	57%	1.75
	No	43%	2.34
Double chance	1X (St. Truiden or draw)	58%	1.73
	12 (either side)	73%	1.38
	X2 (draw or Lommel United)	70%	1.43
Handicap -1	Lommel United win by 2+	22%	4.62
	Push (exactly one goal)	21%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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