HNK Hajduk Split vs NK Varazdin preview
In the HNL fixture between HNK Hajduk Split and NK Varazdin, the 1X2 probabilities show HNK Hajduk Split at 52% to win, while NK Varazdin has a 20% chance. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which aligns with HNK Hajduk Split's expected goals of 1.48 compared to NK Varazdin's 1.13.
However, there are factors that could lead to a different outcome. Both teams to score stands at 54%, suggesting that Varazdin could find the net. Additionally, recent form shows HNK Hajduk Split with mixed results, while NK Varazdin has had a more stable run with three draws in their last five matches. This could impact the final result.
HNK Hajduk Split vs NK Varazdin: model vs market
| Source | HNK Hajduk Split | Draw | NK Varazdin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44% | 28% | 28% |
| Market | 55% | 26% | 19% |
| Published | 52% | 27% | 21% |
| Edge | -11% | +2% | +9% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.48 vs 1.13.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.75, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
HNK Hajduk Split vs NK Varazdin odds movement
Median bookmaker price on HNK Hajduk Split, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| HNK Hajduk Split | 1.68 | 1.67 | -0.01 |
| Draw | 3.34 | 3.55 | +0.21 |
| NK Varazdin | 5.38 | 4.90 | -0.48 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
HNK Hajduk Split and NK Varazdin expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.62
- Attack rating (HNK Hajduk Split / NK Varazdin)
- 1.35 / 1.01
- Defence rating (HNK Hajduk Split / NK Varazdin)
- 0.93 / 0.71
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
HNK Hajduk Split vs NK Varazdin score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: HNK Hajduk Split goals. Columns: NK Varazdin goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
HNK Hajduk Split vs NK Varazdin goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for HNK Hajduk Split vs NK Varazdin
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | HNK Hajduk Split | 52% | 1.91 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.77 | |
| NK Varazdin | 21% | 4.75 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49% | 2.06 |
| Under 2.5 | 51% | 1.95 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.86 |
| No | 46% | 2.16 | |
| Double chance | 1X (HNK Hajduk Split or draw) | 79% | 1.27 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or NK Varazdin) | 48% | 2.10 | |
| Handicap -1 | HNK Hajduk Split win by 2+ | 22% | 4.48 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
HNK Hajduk Split and NK Varazdin recent form
HNK Hajduk Split
4W 0D 2L
NK Varazdin
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
HNK Hajduk Split at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-0
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 2.25
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
NK Varazdin away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: HNK Hajduk Split at home only, NK Varazdin away only.
HNK Hajduk Split vs NK Varazdin head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: HNK Hajduk Split 1 · draws 2 · NK Varazdin 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02 | NK Varazdin | 2-1 | HNK Hajduk Split | HNL |
| 2026-05-03 | HNK Hajduk Split | 3-1 | NK Varazdin | HNL |
| 2026-02-28 | NK Varazdin | 1-1 | HNK Hajduk Split | HNL |
| 2025-11-29 | HNK Hajduk Split | 1-1 | NK Varazdin | HNL |
| 2025-09-13 | NK Varazdin | 2-0 | HNK Hajduk Split | HNL |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Rudes vs HNK Rijeka — team news & stats 2026-10-16
- NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Istra 1961 2026-10-17
- NK Osijek vs HNK Gorica — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- NK Slaven Belupo v Dinamo Zagreb — match page 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- HNK Hajduk Split, previous: HNK Hajduk Split – Ajax, 2026-10-15
- HNK Hajduk Split, next: FC Thun – HNK Hajduk Split, 2026-10-22
- NK Varazdin, previous: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs NK Varazdin prediction