NK Slaven Belupo vs Dinamo Zagreb preview
In the match between NK Slaven Belupo and Dinamo Zagreb, the 1X2 probabilities show Dinamo Zagreb at 62%, compared to NK Slaven Belupo's 18%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which aligns with the expected goals of 1.62 for NK Slaven Belupo and 1.95 for Dinamo Zagreb. Additionally, there is a strong likelihood for Over 2.5 goals at 69% and both teams to score at 70%.
However, NK Slaven Belupo's recent form includes 3 wins in their last 6 matches, while Dinamo Zagreb has only 2 wins in the same period. This variance in form could influence the outcome, especially given that Dinamo Zagreb has won all 5 of their last meetings with NK Slaven Belupo.
NK Slaven Belupo vs Dinamo Zagreb: model vs market
| Source | NK Slaven Belupo | Draw | Dinamo Zagreb |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31% | 24% | 45% |
| Market | 13% | 18% | 69% |
| Published | 18% | 19% | 63% |
| Edge | +18% | +6% | -24% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.95 vs 1.62.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.38, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
NK Slaven Belupo vs Dinamo Zagreb odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Dinamo Zagreb, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| NK Slaven Belupo | 6.50 | 7.00 | +0.50 |
| Draw | 5.15 | 5.15 | +0.00 |
| Dinamo Zagreb | 1.35 | 1.34 | -0.01 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
NK Slaven Belupo and Dinamo Zagreb expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.57
- Attack rating (NK Slaven Belupo / Dinamo Zagreb)
- 0.98 / 1.29
- Defence rating (NK Slaven Belupo / Dinamo Zagreb)
- 1.25 / 1.07
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
NK Slaven Belupo vs Dinamo Zagreb score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: NK Slaven Belupo goals. Columns: Dinamo Zagreb goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
NK Slaven Belupo vs Dinamo Zagreb goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 70%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for NK Slaven Belupo vs Dinamo Zagreb
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | NK Slaven Belupo | 18% | 5.63 |
| Draw | 19% | 5.18 | |
| Dinamo Zagreb | 63% | 1.59 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69% | 1.45 |
| Under 2.5 | 31% | 3.24 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70% | 1.44 |
| No | 30% | 3.29 | |
| Double chance | 1X (NK Slaven Belupo or draw) | 37% | 2.70 |
| 12 (either side) | 81% | 1.24 | |
| X2 (draw or Dinamo Zagreb) | 82% | 1.22 | |
| Handicap -1 | Dinamo Zagreb win by 2+ | 26% | 3.89 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
NK Slaven Belupo and Dinamo Zagreb recent form
NK Slaven Belupo
3W 1D 2L
Dinamo Zagreb
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
NK Slaven Belupo at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-1
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 2.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Dinamo Zagreb away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 2.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: NK Slaven Belupo at home only, Dinamo Zagreb away only.
NK Slaven Belupo vs Dinamo Zagreb head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: NK Slaven Belupo 0 · draws 0 · Dinamo Zagreb 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | Dinamo Zagreb | 2-0 | NK Slaven Belupo | HNL |
| 2026-05-17 | NK Slaven Belupo | 1-4 | Dinamo Zagreb | HNL |
| 2026-03-14 | Dinamo Zagreb | 4-2 | NK Slaven Belupo | HNL |
| 2025-12-14 | NK Slaven Belupo | 2-5 | Dinamo Zagreb | HNL |
| 2025-09-28 | Dinamo Zagreb | 4-1 | NK Slaven Belupo | HNL |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Rudes vs HNK Rijeka — team news & stats 2026-10-16
- NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Istra 1961 2026-10-17
- NK Osijek vs HNK Gorica — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- HNK Hajduk Split v NK Varazdin — match page 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- NK Slaven Belupo, previous: NK Slaven Belupo – HNK Rijeka, 2026-10-11
- Dinamo Zagreb, previous: Dinamo Zagreb vs Anderlecht: odds and pick
- Dinamo Zagreb, next: Dinamo Zagreb v NEC Nijmegen analysis