NK Osijek vs HNK Gorica preview
In the upcoming match between NK Osijek and HNK Gorica, the 1X2 probabilities show NK Osijek at 59%, compared to HNK Gorica at 16%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 13% chance. NK Osijek has an expected goals figure of 1.70, while HNK Gorica sits at 0.77.
However, both teams to score stands at 45%, indicating a potential for goals from both sides. Recent form shows NK Osijek with a mixed record of D-W-L-W-L-W, while HNK Gorica has struggled, recording L-W-D-L-D-L. The confidence grade is C, suggesting some uncertainty in the outcome.
NK Osijek vs HNK Gorica: model vs market
| Source | NK Osijek | Draw | HNK Gorica |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55% | 27% | 18% |
| Market | 56% | 24% | 20% |
| Published | 56% | 25% | 20% |
| Edge | 0% | +2% | -2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.67 vs 0.85.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.70, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
NK Osijek vs HNK Gorica odds movement
Median bookmaker price on NK Osijek, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-11.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| NK Osijek | 1.65 | 1.65 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.85 | 3.80 | -0.05 |
| HNK Gorica | 4.54 | 4.55 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
NK Osijek and HNK Gorica expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.52
- Attack rating (NK Osijek / HNK Gorica)
- 1.09 / 0.68
- Defence rating (NK Osijek / HNK Gorica)
- 1.05 / 0.99
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
NK Osijek vs HNK Gorica score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: NK Osijek goals. Columns: HNK Gorica goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
NK Osijek vs HNK Gorica goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 48%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for NK Osijek vs HNK Gorica
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | NK Osijek | 56% | 1.80 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.04 | |
| HNK Gorica | 20% | 5.09 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46% | 2.17 |
| Under 2.5 | 54% | 1.86 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48% | 2.09 |
| No | 52% | 1.91 | |
| Double chance | 1X (NK Osijek or draw) | 80% | 1.24 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or HNK Gorica) | 44% | 2.25 | |
| Handicap -1 | NK Osijek win by 2+ | 31% | 3.22 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
NK Osijek and HNK Gorica recent form
NK Osijek
2W 1D 3L
HNK Gorica
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
NK Osijek at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-1
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 2.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
HNK Gorica away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-3
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: NK Osijek at home only, HNK Gorica away only.
NK Osijek vs HNK Gorica head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: NK Osijek 2 · draws 2 · HNK Gorica 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | HNK Gorica | 0-2 | NK Osijek | HNL |
| 2026-05-16 | HNK Gorica | 2-0 | NK Osijek | HNL |
| 2026-03-14 | NK Osijek | 0-0 | HNK Gorica | HNL |
| 2025-12-13 | NK Osijek | 1-1 | HNK Gorica | HNL |
| 2025-09-28 | HNK Gorica | 0-1 | NK Osijek | HNL |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Rudes vs HNK Rijeka — team news & stats 2026-10-16
- NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Istra 1961 2026-10-17
- HNK Hajduk Split v NK Varazdin — match page 2026-10-18
- NK Slaven Belupo v Dinamo Zagreb — match page 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- NK Osijek, previous: NK Osijek vs Istra 1961: odds and pick
- HNK Gorica, previous: HNK Gorica v Rudes analysis