NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Istra 1961 preview
In the upcoming match between NK Lokomotiva Zagreb and Istra 1961, the 1X2 probabilities show NK Lokomotiva Zagreb at 42%, while Istra 1961 stands at 31%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% chance. The model suggests a strong possibility for Over 2.5 goals at 54% and both teams to score at 58%.
Recent form indicates NK Lokomotiva Zagreb has struggled, with 3 losses in their last 5 matches, while Istra 1961 has a mixed form with 2 wins. The head-to-head record shows NK Lokomotiva Zagreb has 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 win for Istra 1961 in their last 5 encounters. A surprise result could arise if Istra 1961 improves their away performance or if NK Lokomotiva Zagreb's form continues to decline.
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Istra 1961: model vs market
| Source | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | Draw | Istra 1961 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34% | 28% | 38% |
| Market | 40% | 26% | 34% |
| Published | 39% | 26% | 35% |
| Edge | -7% | +2% | +4% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.35, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Istra 1961 odds movement
Median bookmaker price on NK Lokomotiva Zagreb, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 2.30 | 2.30 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.60 | 3.58 | -0.02 |
| Istra 1961 | 2.74 | 2.74 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb and Istra 1961 expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.75
- Attack rating (NK Lokomotiva Zagreb / Istra 1961)
- 0.87 / 1.11
- Defence rating (NK Lokomotiva Zagreb / Istra 1961)
- 1.07 / 0.98
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Istra 1961 score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb goals. Columns: Istra 1961 goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Istra 1961 goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Istra 1961
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 39% | 2.59 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.79 | |
| Istra 1961 | 35% | 2.86 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52% | 1.93 |
| Under 2.5 | 48% | 2.07 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.76 |
| No | 43% | 2.32 | |
| Double chance | 1X (NK Lokomotiva Zagreb or draw) | 65% | 1.54 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Istra 1961) | 61% | 1.63 | |
| Handicap -1 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb win by 2+ | 16% | 6.43 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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NK Lokomotiva Zagreb and Istra 1961 recent form
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1W 1D 4L
Istra 1961
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Istra 1961 away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-1
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb at home only, Istra 1961 away only.
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Istra 1961 head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 3 · draws 3 · Istra 1961 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | Istra 1961 | 2-3 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | HNL |
| 2026-04-11 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 2-0 | Istra 1961 | HNL |
| 2026-01-30 | Istra 1961 | 1-1 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | HNL |
| 2025-10-25 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 1-2 | Istra 1961 | HNL |
| 2025-08-09 | Istra 1961 | 2-2 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | HNL |
| 2025-05-03 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 0-0 | Istra 1961 | HNL |
| 2025-03-04 | Istra 1961 | 3-0 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | Cup |
| 2025-02-28 | Istra 1961 | 3-2 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | HNL |
| 2024-12-01 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 1-2 | Istra 1961 | HNL |
| 2024-09-14 | Istra 1961 | 0-2 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | HNL |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Rudes vs HNK Rijeka — team news & stats 2026-10-16
- NK Osijek vs HNK Gorica — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- HNK Hajduk Split v NK Varazdin — match page 2026-10-18
- NK Slaven Belupo v Dinamo Zagreb — match page 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- NK Lokomotiva Zagreb, previous: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs NK Varazdin prediction
- Istra 1961, previous: NK Osijek vs Istra 1961: odds and pick