Rudes vs HNK Rijeka preview
In the match between Rudes and HNK Rijeka, the 1X2 probabilities show HNK Rijeka at 58% and Rudes at 20%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which aligns with the expected goals of Rudes at 1.24 and HNK Rijeka at 2.19.
With 67% for Over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, there is a strong likelihood of a high-scoring game. However, Rudes' recent form of D-L-L-L-W-L could lead to an unexpected result, particularly if they manage to improve their performance.
Rudes vs HNK Rijeka: model vs market
| Source | Rudes | Draw | HNK Rijeka |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 23% | 23% | 54% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 23% | 23% | 54% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.05 vs 1.30.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Rudes and HNK Rijeka expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.35
- Attack rating (Rudes / HNK Rijeka)
- 1.02 / 1.09
- Defence rating (Rudes / HNK Rijeka)
- 1.57 / 0.82
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Rudes vs HNK Rijeka score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Rudes goals. Columns: HNK Rijeka goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Rudes vs HNK Rijeka goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 64%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Rudes vs HNK Rijeka
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rudes | 23% | 4.34 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.32 | |
| HNK Rijeka | 54% | 1.86 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65% | 1.54 |
| Under 2.5 | 35% | 2.86 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64% | 1.56 |
| No | 36% | 2.80 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Rudes or draw) | 46% | 2.17 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or HNK Rijeka) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| Handicap -1 | HNK Rijeka win by 2+ | 33% | 3.06 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Rudes and HNK Rijeka recent form
Rudes
2W 1D 3L
HNK Rijeka
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Rudes at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 3.25
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
HNK Rijeka away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
League matches this season before kick-off: Rudes at home only, HNK Rijeka away only.
Rudes vs HNK Rijeka head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Rudes 0 · draws 0 · HNK Rijeka 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02 | HNK Rijeka | 2-1 | Rudes | HNL |
Before and after this match
- Rudes, previous: HNK Gorica v Rudes analysis
- HNK Rijeka, previous: NK Slaven Belupo – HNK Rijeka, 2026-10-11