Suduva Marijampole vs Kauno Žalgiris preview
In the upcoming match between Suduva Marijampole and Kauno Žalgiris, the 1X2 probabilities show Kauno Žalgiris at 47%, while Suduva Marijampole is at 27%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, with a 9% chance. The model also suggests a 54% probability for Over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance for both teams to score.
Suduva Marijampole's recent form includes 2 wins and 4 draws in their last 6 matches, while Kauno Žalgiris has 4 wins and 1 draw in the same period. The expected goals are 1.19 for Suduva Marijampole and 1.63 for Kauno Žalgiris. A different outcome could arise if Suduva Marijampole improves their scoring efficiency or if Kauno Žalgiris underperforms.
Suduva Marijampole vs Kauno Žalgiris: model vs market
| Source | Suduva Marijampole | Draw | Kauno Žalgiris |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 27% | 27% | 47% |
| Market | 26% | 27% | 46% |
| Published | 27% | 27% | 46% |
| Edge | 0% | -1% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.63 vs 1.19.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.95, recorded — the top price across the 5 books we record, each at its own last update.
Suduva Marijampole vs Kauno Žalgiris odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Kauno Žalgiris, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-14.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Suduva Marijampole | 3.40 | 3.40 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.28 | 3.28 | +0.00 |
| Kauno Žalgiris | 1.95 | 1.95 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Suduva Marijampole and Kauno Žalgiris expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.82
- Attack rating (Suduva Marijampole / Kauno Žalgiris)
- 1.04 / 1.30
- Defence rating (Suduva Marijampole / Kauno Žalgiris)
- 1.04 / 0.79
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Suduva Marijampole vs Kauno Žalgiris score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Suduva Marijampole goals. Columns: Kauno Žalgiris goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Suduva Marijampole vs Kauno Žalgiris goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Suduva Marijampole vs Kauno Žalgiris
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Suduva Marijampole | 27% | 3.77 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.67 | |
| Kauno Žalgiris | 46% | 2.16 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54% | 1.87 |
| Under 2.5 | 46% | 2.15 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.75 |
| No | 43% | 2.33 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Suduva Marijampole or draw) | 54% | 1.86 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Kauno Žalgiris) | 73% | 1.36 | |
| Handicap -1 | Kauno Žalgiris win by 2+ | 25% | 4.01 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Suduva Marijampole and Kauno Žalgiris recent form
Suduva Marijampole
2W 2D 2L
Kauno Žalgiris
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Suduva Marijampole at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-6-0
- Win rate
- 57%
- Goals for / match
- 1.64
- Goals against / match
- 0.43
- Clean sheets
- 9 of 14
- They have won 15 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Kauno Žalgiris away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-5-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.71
- Goals against / match
- 0.86
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 14
- They have won 15 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 1.7 on the road.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Suduva Marijampole at home only, Kauno Žalgiris away only.
Suduva Marijampole vs Kauno Žalgiris head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Suduva Marijampole 4 · draws 4 · Kauno Žalgiris 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Kauno Žalgiris | 5-1 | Suduva Marijampole | A Lyga |
| 2026-05-23 | Suduva Marijampole | 2-1 | Kauno Žalgiris | A Lyga |
| 2026-03-21 | Kauno Žalgiris | 1-1 | Suduva Marijampole | A Lyga |
| 2026-01-17 | Suduva Marijampole | 0-4 | Kauno Žalgiris | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2025-10-27 | Suduva Marijampole | 1-0 | Kauno Žalgiris | A Lyga |
| 2025-09-24 | Kauno Žalgiris | 1-1 | Suduva Marijampole | A Lyga |
| 2025-08-10 | Kauno Žalgiris | 0-2 | Suduva Marijampole | Cup |
| 2025-06-13 | Suduva Marijampole | 0-0 | Kauno Žalgiris | A Lyga |
| 2025-04-12 | Kauno Žalgiris | 0-0 | Suduva Marijampole | A Lyga |
| 2024-11-09 | Kauno Žalgiris | 2-4 | Suduva Marijampole | A Lyga |
Other Matchday 33 fixtures
Before and after this match
- Suduva Marijampole, previous: FK Zalgiris Vilnius – Suduva Marijampole, 2026-10-10
- Kauno Žalgiris, previous: Brighton vs Kauno Žalgiris: odds and pick
- Kauno Žalgiris, next: Kauno Žalgiris vs Brann prediction