Panevėžys vs Banga preview
In the A Lyga fixture, Panevėžys faces Banga with 33% chances for Panevėžys to win, 28% for a draw, and 39% for Banga to take the match. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, occurring at 8%. Panevėžys has an expected goals figure of 1.38, while Banga sits at 0.98, suggesting a tight contest.
Both teams to score stands at 48%, and the probability for Over 2.5 goals is 42%. Recent form shows Panevėžys with a record of L-W-W-W-L-L, while Banga has W-L-L-D-D-W. The head-to-head results favor Panevėžys with 5 wins from the last 10 encounters, but Banga's current form could challenge that trend.
Panevėžys vs Banga: model vs market
| Source | Panevėžys | Draw | Banga |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45% | 30% | 25% |
| Market | 28% | 27% | 45% |
| Published | 32% | 27% | 40% |
| Edge | +16% | +3% | -20% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.05, recorded — the top price across the 5 books we record, each at its own last update.
Panevėžys vs Banga odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Banga, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-13.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Panevėžys | 3.10 | 3.18 | +0.08 |
| Draw | 3.35 | 3.40 | +0.05 |
| Banga | 2.12 | 2.00 | -0.12 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Panevėžys and Banga expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.35
- Attack rating (Panevėžys / Banga)
- 0.98 / 0.97
- Defence rating (Panevėžys / Banga)
- 0.84 / 0.97
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Panevėžys vs Banga score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Panevėžys goals. Columns: Banga goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Panevėžys vs Banga goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 48%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Panevėžys vs Banga
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Panevėžys | 32% | 3.08 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.65 | |
| Banga | 40% | 2.49 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 42% | 2.39 |
| Under 2.5 | 58% | 1.72 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48% | 2.09 |
| No | 52% | 1.92 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Panevėžys or draw) | 60% | 1.67 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Banga) | 68% | 1.48 | |
| Handicap -1 | Banga win by 2+ | 10% | 10.43 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Panevėžys and Banga recent form
Panevėžys
3W 0D 3L
Banga
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Panevėžys at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-5-4
- Win rate
- 36%
- Goals for / match
- 1.14
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 14
- They have won 10 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Banga away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-4-4
- Win rate
- 47%
- Goals for / match
- 1.27
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 15
- They have won 13 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 4 penalties (50%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Panevėžys at home only, Banga away only.
Panevėžys vs Banga head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Panevėžys 5 · draws 3 · Banga 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Banga | 0-3 | Panevėžys | A Lyga |
| 2026-05-24 | Panevėžys | 1-0 | Banga | A Lyga |
| 2026-03-21 | Banga | 0-1 | Panevėžys | A Lyga |
| 2025-10-18 | Banga | 2-2 | Panevėžys | A Lyga |
| 2025-08-20 | Panevėžys | 1-0 | Banga | A Lyga |
| 2025-05-23 | Banga | 1-1 | Panevėžys | A Lyga |
| 2025-03-30 | Panevėžys | 1-1 | Banga | A Lyga |
| 2024-09-15 | Banga | 2-3 | Panevėžys | A Lyga |
| 2024-06-29 | Panevėžys | 0-1 | Banga | A Lyga |
| 2024-05-11 | Banga | 2-0 | Panevėžys | A Lyga |