FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Hegelmann Litauen preview
In the A Lyga fixture between FK Zalgiris Vilnius and Hegelmann Litauen, the 1X2 probabilities show FK Zalgiris Vilnius at 62%, while Hegelmann Litauen sits at 17%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with the expected goals of 2.25 for FK Zalgiris Vilnius and 1.13 for Hegelmann Litauen.
With Over 2.5 goals at 66% and both teams to score at 61%, there is potential for a high-scoring match. However, FK Zalgiris Vilnius's recent form includes two losses, which could impact their performance. Hegelmann Litauen has struggled, with no wins in their last six matches, but they have previously won 3 out of the last 7 encounters against FK Zalgiris Vilnius.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Hegelmann Litauen: model vs market
| Source | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | Draw | Hegelmann Litauen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 62% | 21% | 17% |
| Market | 68% | 19% | 13% |
| Published | 66% | 20% | 14% |
| Edge | -6% | +2% | +4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.25 vs 1.13.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.35, recorded — the top price across the 5 books we record, each at its own last update.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Hegelmann Litauen odds movement
Median bookmaker price on FK Zalgiris Vilnius, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-14.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| FK Zalgiris Vilnius | 1.32 | 1.32 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 4.70 | 4.70 | +0.00 |
| Hegelmann Litauen | 6.85 | 6.85 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius and Hegelmann Litauen expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.38
- Attack rating (FK Zalgiris Vilnius / Hegelmann Litauen)
- 1.28 / 0.78
- Defence rating (FK Zalgiris Vilnius / Hegelmann Litauen)
- 1.19 / 1.21
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Hegelmann Litauen score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: FK Zalgiris Vilnius goals. Columns: Hegelmann Litauen goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Hegelmann Litauen goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 61%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Hegelmann Litauen
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | 66% | 1.51 |
| Draw | 20% | 5.11 | |
| Hegelmann Litauen | 14% | 7.09 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66% | 1.52 |
| Under 2.5 | 34% | 2.91 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61% | 1.63 |
| No | 39% | 2.59 | |
| Double chance | 1X (FK Zalgiris Vilnius or draw) | 86% | 1.16 |
| 12 (either side) | 80% | 1.24 | |
| X2 (draw or Hegelmann Litauen) | 34% | 2.97 | |
| Handicap -1 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius win by 2+ | 40% | 2.50 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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FK Zalgiris Vilnius and Hegelmann Litauen recent form
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
3W 1D 2L
Hegelmann Litauen
0W 4D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
FK Zalgiris Vilnius at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 10-1-5
- Win rate
- 62%
- Goals for / match
- 2.12
- Goals against / match
- 1.38
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 16
- They have won 14 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 8 penalties (88%).
Hegelmann Litauen away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-5-7
- Win rate
- 14%
- Goals for / match
- 0.86
- Goals against / match
- 1.86
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 14
- They have won 4 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 29 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: FK Zalgiris Vilnius at home only, Hegelmann Litauen away only.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Hegelmann Litauen head-to-head
Last 7 meetings: FK Zalgiris Vilnius 2 · draws 2 · Hegelmann Litauen 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 | Hegelmann Litauen | 2-3 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | A Lyga |
| 2026-05-24 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | 1-3 | Hegelmann Litauen | A Lyga |
| 2026-03-22 | Hegelmann Litauen | 0-0 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | A Lyga |
| 2025-11-02 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | 3-1 | Hegelmann Litauen | A Lyga |
| 2025-08-24 | Hegelmann Litauen | 2-2 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | A Lyga |
| 2025-06-24 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | 0-1 | Hegelmann Litauen | A Lyga |
| 2025-04-20 | Hegelmann Litauen | 2-1 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | A Lyga |
Other Matchday 33 fixtures
- Panevėžys vs Banga — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Džiugas Telšiai vs TransINVEST Vilnius 2026-10-17
- Suduva Marijampole v Kauno Žalgiris — match page 2026-10-19
Before and after this match
- FK Zalgiris Vilnius, previous: FK Zalgiris Vilnius – Suduva Marijampole, 2026-10-10