Džiugas Telšiai vs TransINVEST Vilnius preview
In the A Lyga fixture on 2026-10-17, Džiugas Telšiai faces TransINVEST Vilnius, with 60% probability for an away win compared to 17% for a home victory. The most likely scoreline is 0-2, reflecting TransINVEST's expected goals of 2.01 against Džiugas's 0.98.
Džiugas Telšiai's recent form shows 1 win in their last 5 matches, while TransINVEST Vilnius has 3 wins in their last 5. Both teams to score stands at 55%, and Over 2.5 goals is at 58%, indicating potential for a high-scoring game. However, Džiugas's struggle for goals could lead to a different outcome.
Džiugas Telšiai vs TransINVEST Vilnius: model vs market
| Source | Džiugas Telšiai | Draw | TransINVEST Vilnius |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 17% | 23% | 60% |
| Market | 23% | 25% | 52% |
| Published | 22% | 25% | 54% |
| Edge | -6% | -2% | +9% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.01 vs 0.98.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices TransINVEST Vilnius below the model: +8.6 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.80, recorded — the top price across the 5 books we record, each at its own last update.
Džiugas Telšiai vs TransINVEST Vilnius odds movement
Median bookmaker price on TransINVEST Vilnius, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-14.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Džiugas Telšiai | 3.90 | 3.90 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.60 | 3.60 | +0.00 |
| TransINVEST Vilnius | 1.75 | 1.75 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Džiugas Telšiai and TransINVEST Vilnius expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.00
- Attack rating (Džiugas Telšiai / TransINVEST Vilnius)
- 0.78 / 1.24
- Defence rating (Džiugas Telšiai / TransINVEST Vilnius)
- 1.34 / 0.87
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Džiugas Telšiai vs TransINVEST Vilnius score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Džiugas Telšiai goals. Columns: TransINVEST Vilnius goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Džiugas Telšiai vs TransINVEST Vilnius goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Džiugas Telšiai vs TransINVEST Vilnius
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Džiugas Telšiai | 22% | 4.64 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.07 | |
| TransINVEST Vilnius | 54% | 1.86 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58% | 1.74 |
| Under 2.5 | 42% | 2.36 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.81 |
| No | 45% | 2.23 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Džiugas Telšiai or draw) | 46% | 2.17 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or TransINVEST Vilnius) | 78% | 1.28 | |
| Handicap -1 | TransINVEST Vilnius win by 2+ | 37% | 2.67 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Džiugas Telšiai and TransINVEST Vilnius recent form
Džiugas Telšiai
1W 1D 4L
TransINVEST Vilnius
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Džiugas Telšiai at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-3-5
- Win rate
- 47%
- Goals for / match
- 1.40
- Goals against / match
- 1.13
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 15
- They have won 12 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
TransINVEST Vilnius away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-3-4
- Win rate
- 53%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 15
- They have won 14 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.3 at home.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Džiugas Telšiai at home only, TransINVEST Vilnius away only.
Džiugas Telšiai vs TransINVEST Vilnius head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Džiugas Telšiai 1 · draws 1 · TransINVEST Vilnius 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26 | TransINVEST Vilnius | 1-0 | Džiugas Telšiai | A Lyga |
| 2026-05-24 | Džiugas Telšiai | 3-2 | TransINVEST Vilnius | A Lyga |
| 2026-03-22 | TransINVEST Vilnius | 0-0 | Džiugas Telšiai | A Lyga |