FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Suduva Marijampole preview
FK Zalgiris Vilnius faces Suduva Marijampole in the A Lyga, with the market showing a 38% chance of a Zalgiris win compared to 35% for Suduva. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Zalgiris, with a 7% probability. The match could see Over 2.5 goals at 62% and both teams to score at 63%, indicating an expectation of an open game.
Zalgiris has a recent form of L-W-D-W-L-W, while Suduva comes in with D-D-L-W-W-W. Historically, Zalgiris has dominated their last 10 encounters, winning 5 and drawing 5, with Suduva yet to secure a victory. The confidence grade is C, suggesting that while the probabilities are informative, there is uncertainty in the outcome.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Suduva Marijampole: model vs market
| Source | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | Draw | Suduva Marijampole |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 26% | 25% | 50% |
| Market | 42% | 27% | 31% |
| Published | 38% | 27% | 35% |
| Edge | -16% | -3% | +19% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.18, recorded — the top price across the 1 books we record, each at its own last update.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Suduva Marijampole odds movement
Median bookmaker price on FK Zalgiris Vilnius, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-06.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| FK Zalgiris Vilnius | 2.18 | 2.18 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.35 | 3.35 | +0.00 |
| Suduva Marijampole | 2.99 | 2.99 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius and Suduva Marijampole expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.19
- Attack rating (FK Zalgiris Vilnius / Suduva Marijampole)
- 1.13 / 1.18
- Defence rating (FK Zalgiris Vilnius / Suduva Marijampole)
- 1.32 / 0.81
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Suduva Marijampole score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: FK Zalgiris Vilnius goals. Columns: Suduva Marijampole goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Suduva Marijampole goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 63%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Suduva Marijampole
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | 38% | 2.64 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.75 | |
| Suduva Marijampole | 35% | 2.82 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62% | 1.62 |
| Under 2.5 | 38% | 2.62 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63% | 1.59 |
| No | 37% | 2.69 | |
| Double chance | 1X (FK Zalgiris Vilnius or draw) | 65% | 1.55 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Suduva Marijampole) | 62% | 1.61 | |
| Handicap -1 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius win by 2+ | 11% | 8.85 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 14% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius and Suduva Marijampole recent form
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
3W 1D 2L
Suduva Marijampole
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
FK Zalgiris Vilnius at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-1-5
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.47
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 15
- They have won 14 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 8 penalties (88%).
Suduva Marijampole away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-5-4
- Win rate
- 44%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.19
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 16
- They have won 15 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: FK Zalgiris Vilnius at home only, Suduva Marijampole away only.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Suduva Marijampole head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: FK Zalgiris Vilnius 5 · draws 5 · Suduva Marijampole 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Suduva Marijampole | 0-0 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | A Lyga |
| 2026-05-10 | Suduva Marijampole | 1-1 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | A Lyga |
| 2026-03-10 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | 1-0 | Suduva Marijampole | A Lyga |
| 2025-09-29 | Suduva Marijampole | 1-3 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | A Lyga |
| 2025-08-07 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | 1-0 | Suduva Marijampole | A Lyga |
| 2025-06-19 | Suduva Marijampole | 2-2 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | A Lyga |
| 2025-04-16 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | 3-0 | Suduva Marijampole | A Lyga |
| 2024-08-25 | Suduva Marijampole | 1-1 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | A Lyga |
| 2024-06-23 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | 4-0 | Suduva Marijampole | A Lyga |
| 2024-04-28 | Suduva Marijampole | 1-1 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | A Lyga |