Celje vs Aluminij: model vs market
| Source | Celje | Draw | Aluminij |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 27% | 30% | 43% |
| Market | 62% | 21% | 17% |
| Published | 53% | 23% | 24% |
| Edge | -36% | +10% | +26% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.52, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Celje vs Aluminij odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Celje, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Celje | 1.44 | 1.44 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 4.50 | 4.37 | -0.13 |
| Aluminij | 5.80 | 5.30 | -0.50 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Celje and Aluminij expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.34
- Attack rating (Celje / Aluminij)
- 0.74 / 1.07
- Defence rating (Celje / Aluminij)
- 0.91 / 0.85
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Celje vs Aluminij score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Celje goals. Columns: Aluminij goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Celje vs Aluminij goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 48%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Celje vs Aluminij
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Celje | 53% | 1.87 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.34 | |
| Aluminij | 24% | 4.25 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 41% | 2.41 |
| Under 2.5 | 59% | 1.71 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48% | 2.09 |
| No | 52% | 1.92 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Celje or draw) | 76% | 1.31 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Aluminij) | 47% | 2.15 | |
| Handicap -1 | Celje win by 2+ | 10% | 9.72 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Celje and Aluminij recent form
Celje
1W 1D 4L
Aluminij
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Celje at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-1
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Aluminij away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-1
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 2.40
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 9 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Celje at home only, Aluminij away only.
Celje vs Aluminij head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Celje 6 · draws 2 · Aluminij 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Aluminij | 0-2 | Celje | 1. SNL |
| 2026-04-26 | Celje | 5-0 | Aluminij | 1. SNL |
| 2026-03-05 | Aluminij | 2-1 | Celje | 1. SNL |
| 2025-11-01 | Celje | 2-1 | Aluminij | 1. SNL |
| 2025-08-17 | Aluminij | 2-3 | Celje | 1. SNL |
| 2024-03-30 | Celje | 2-2 | Aluminij | 1. SNL |
| 2024-02-04 | Celje | 4-1 | Aluminij | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2023-12-09 | Aluminij | 1-3 | Celje | 1. SNL |
| 2023-09-27 | Celje | 1-3 | Aluminij | 1. SNL |
| 2023-07-23 | Aluminij | 2-2 | Celje | 1. SNL |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Radomlje v Koper — match page 2026-10-10
- Olimpija Ljubljana v Mura — match page 2026-10-10
- Nafta vs Bravo 2026-10-11
- Brinje-Grosuplje vs Maribor — team news & stats 2026-10-11