Olimpija Ljubljana vs Mura: model vs market
| Source | Olimpija Ljubljana | Draw | Mura |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 62% | 25% | 14% |
| Market | 54% | 26% | 20% |
| Published | 56% | 25% | 19% |
| Edge | +8% | -1% | -7% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.79 vs 0.73.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Olimpija Ljubljana below the model: +7.9 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.77, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Olimpija Ljubljana vs Mura odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Olimpija Ljubljana, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Olimpija Ljubljana | 1.56 | 1.69 | +0.13 |
| Draw | 3.77 | 3.54 | -0.23 |
| Mura | 5.38 | 4.46 | -0.92 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Olimpija Ljubljana and Mura expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.52
- Attack rating (Olimpija Ljubljana / Mura)
- 0.90 / 0.73
- Defence rating (Olimpija Ljubljana / Mura)
- 0.73 / 1.26
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Olimpija Ljubljana vs Mura score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Olimpija Ljubljana goals. Columns: Mura goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Olimpija Ljubljana vs Mura goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 44%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Olimpija Ljubljana vs Mura
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Olimpija Ljubljana | 56% | 1.79 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.94 | |
| Mura | 19% | 5.35 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46% | 2.17 |
| Under 2.5 | 54% | 1.85 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44% | 2.27 |
| No | 56% | 1.79 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Olimpija Ljubljana or draw) | 81% | 1.23 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Mura) | 44% | 2.27 | |
| Handicap -1 | Olimpija Ljubljana win by 2+ | 37% | 2.72 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Olimpija Ljubljana and Mura recent form
Olimpija Ljubljana
3W 2D 1L
Mura
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Olimpija Ljubljana at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-1
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 0.60
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Mura away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-2
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.40
- Goals against / match
- 2.20
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
League matches this season before kick-off: Olimpija Ljubljana at home only, Mura away only.
Olimpija Ljubljana vs Mura head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Olimpija Ljubljana 3 · draws 1 · Mura 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | Mura | 1-0 | Olimpija Ljubljana | 1. SNL |
| 2026-04-04 | Mura | 0-0 | Olimpija Ljubljana | 1. SNL |
| 2026-01-31 | Olimpija Ljubljana | 1-0 | Mura | 1. SNL |
| 2025-09-28 | Mura | 0-2 | Olimpija Ljubljana | 1. SNL |
| 2025-07-19 | Olimpija Ljubljana | 1-0 | Mura | 1. SNL |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Radomlje v Koper — match page 2026-10-10
- Celje vs Aluminij — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Nafta vs Bravo 2026-10-11
- Brinje-Grosuplje vs Maribor — team news & stats 2026-10-11