Nafta vs Bravo: model vs market
| Source | Nafta | Draw | Bravo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35% | 29% | 36% |
| Market | 37% | 26% | 36% |
| Published | 37% | 27% | 36% |
| Edge | -2% | +3% | -1% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.52, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Nafta vs Bravo odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Nafta, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-05.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nafta | 2.44 | 2.41 | -0.03 |
| Draw | 3.42 | 3.47 | +0.04 |
| Bravo | 2.50 | 2.48 | -0.03 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Nafta and Bravo expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.59
- Attack rating (Nafta / Bravo)
- 1.02 / 0.95
- Defence rating (Nafta / Bravo)
- 1.00 / 0.80
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Nafta vs Bravo score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Nafta goals. Columns: Bravo goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Nafta vs Bravo goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Nafta vs Bravo
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nafta | 37% | 2.71 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.74 | |
| Bravo | 36% | 2.76 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48% | 2.09 |
| Under 2.5 | 52% | 1.92 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.85 |
| No | 46% | 2.17 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Nafta or draw) | 64% | 1.57 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Bravo) | 63% | 1.59 | |
| Handicap -1 | Nafta win by 2+ | 16% | 6.16 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Nafta and Bravo recent form
Nafta
2W 0D 4L
Bravo
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Nafta at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-3
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 2.20
- Goals against / match
- 2.20
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Bravo away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-1
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.80
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Nafta at home only, Bravo away only.
Nafta vs Bravo head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Nafta 1 · draws 0 · Bravo 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26 | Bravo | 0-3 | Nafta | 1. SNL |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
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- Celje vs Aluminij — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Olimpija Ljubljana v Mura — match page 2026-10-10
- Brinje-Grosuplje vs Maribor — team news & stats 2026-10-11