Brinje-Grosuplje vs Maribor: model vs market
| Source | Brinje-Grosuplje | Draw | Maribor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 22% | 24% | 54% |
| Market | 20% | 25% | 55% |
| Published | 21% | 24% | 55% |
| Edge | +2% | -1% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.96 vs 1.19.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.70, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Brinje-Grosuplje vs Maribor odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Maribor, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-05.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brinje-Grosuplje | 4.82 | 4.50 | -0.32 |
| Draw | 3.89 | 3.70 | -0.19 |
| Maribor | 1.58 | 1.65 | +0.06 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Brinje-Grosuplje and Maribor expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.15
- Attack rating (Brinje-Grosuplje / Maribor)
- 0.99 / 1.22
- Defence rating (Brinje-Grosuplje / Maribor)
- 1.17 / 0.76
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Brinje-Grosuplje vs Maribor score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Brinje-Grosuplje goals. Columns: Maribor goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Brinje-Grosuplje vs Maribor goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 61%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Brinje-Grosuplje vs Maribor
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Brinje-Grosuplje | 21% | 4.85 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.10 | |
| Maribor | 55% | 1.82 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61% | 1.64 |
| Under 2.5 | 39% | 2.56 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61% | 1.65 |
| No | 39% | 2.55 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Brinje-Grosuplje or draw) | 45% | 2.22 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Maribor) | 79% | 1.26 | |
| Handicap -1 | Maribor win by 2+ | 32% | 3.09 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Brinje-Grosuplje and Maribor recent form
Brinje-Grosuplje
2W 0D 4L
Maribor
3W 3D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Brinje-Grosuplje at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-2
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
Maribor away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-3-0
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.60
- Goals against / match
- 0.80
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.6 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- 58% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Brinje-Grosuplje at home only, Maribor away only.
Brinje-Grosuplje vs Maribor head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Brinje-Grosuplje 0 · draws 0 · Maribor 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | Maribor | 3-0 | Brinje-Grosuplje | 1. SNL |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Radomlje v Koper — match page 2026-10-10
- Celje vs Aluminij — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Olimpija Ljubljana v Mura — match page 2026-10-10
- Nafta vs Bravo 2026-10-11