Siarka Tarnobrzeg vs Lech Poznan Prediction & Betting Tips 28/10/2026

Siarka Tarnobrzeg vs Lech Poznan preview

In the Poland Cup fixture between Siarka Tarnobrzeg and Lech Poznan, the 1X2 probabilities show Lech Poznan at 60%, while Siarka Tarnobrzeg sits at 20%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-2, with a 9% chance. The expected goals are 1.33 for Siarka Tarnobrzeg and 2.37 for Lech Poznan, indicating a strong attacking performance from the visitors.

The model also suggests a high likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 71% and both teams to score at 68%. However, Siarka Tarnobrzeg's recent form shows a win followed by a loss, which could affect their performance. Lech Poznan's recent form includes three wins in their last six matches, but inconsistency could also play a role.

Siarka Tarnobrzeg vs Lech Poznan: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	Draw	Lech Poznan
Model	20%	21%	60%
Market	—	—	—
Published	20%	21%	60%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.37 vs 1.33.
Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Siarka Tarnobrzeg and Lech Poznan expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.33Siarka Tarnobrzeg

2.37Lech Poznan

Total expected goals: 3.70
Attack rating (Siarka Tarnobrzeg / Lech Poznan): 1.01 / 1.52
Defence rating (Siarka Tarnobrzeg / Lech Poznan): 1.00 / 0.89

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Siarka Tarnobrzeg vs Lech Poznan score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.2% 5.1% 6.9% 5.5% 5.7% 1 2.5% 8.6% 9.2% 7.3% 7.5% 2 2.2% 5.2% 6.2% 4.9% 5.0% 3 1.0% 2.3% 2.7% 2.2% 2.2% 4+ 0.4% 1.0% 1.2% 1.0% 1.0%

Rows: Siarka Tarnobrzeg goals. Columns: Lech Poznan goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Siarka Tarnobrzeg vs Lech Poznan goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%

Over 1.5 89%

Over 2.5 71%

Over 3.5 51%

Both teams to score: 68%
No goals (0–0): 3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Siarka Tarnobrzeg vs Lech Poznan

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	20%	5.07
	Draw	21%	4.85
	Lech Poznan	60%	1.68
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	71%	1.40
	Under 2.5	29%	3.51
Both teams to score	Yes	68%	1.48
	No	32%	3.08
Double chance	1X (Siarka Tarnobrzeg or draw)	40%	2.48
	12 (either side)	79%	1.26
	X2 (draw or Lech Poznan)	80%	1.25
Handicap -1	Lech Poznan win by 2+	39%	2.56
	Push (exactly one goal)	21%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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