Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK preview
Sturm Graz faces Grazer AK with a 54% probability of winning compared to Grazer AK's 21%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which occurs 12% of the time according to our model. Sturm Graz has an expected goals figure of 1.47, while Grazer AK stands at 0.95.
Both teams to score has a 48% chance, and Over 2.5 goals is at 43%. Sturm Graz's recent form shows 3 wins and 2 losses, while Grazer AK has 2 wins, 3 draws, and 1 loss. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty in the outcome. If Grazer AK can improve their scoring, it could challenge Sturm Graz's expected dominance.
Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK: model vs market
| Source | Sturm Graz | Draw | Grazer AK |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48% | 29% | 23% |
| Market | 56% | 24% | 20% |
| Published | 54% | 25% | 21% |
| Edge | -8% | +5% | +3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.47 vs 0.95.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.70, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Sturm Graz, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-10.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sturm Graz | 1.67 | 1.67 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.80 | 3.96 | +0.16 |
| Grazer AK | 4.75 | 4.65 | -0.10 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Sturm Graz and Grazer AK expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.42
- Attack rating (Sturm Graz / Grazer AK)
- 1.00 / 0.96
- Defence rating (Sturm Graz / Grazer AK)
- 0.78 / 0.97
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Sturm Graz goals. Columns: Grazer AK goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 48%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sturm Graz | 54% | 1.85 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.00 | |
| Grazer AK | 21% | 4.78 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 43% | 2.30 |
| Under 2.5 | 57% | 1.77 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48% | 2.07 |
| No | 52% | 1.94 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Sturm Graz or draw) | 79% | 1.26 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Grazer AK) | 46% | 2.18 | |
| Handicap -1 | Sturm Graz win by 2+ | 25% | 4.07 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Sturm Graz and Grazer AK recent form
Sturm Graz
3W 1D 2L
Grazer AK
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Sturm Graz at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-0
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Grazer AK away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-3
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 3.25
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 7 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Sturm Graz at home only, Grazer AK away only.
Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Sturm Graz 2 · draws 0 · Grazer AK 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-07 | Sturm Graz | 2-1 | Grazer AK | Austria Bundesliga |
| 2025-08-30 | Grazer AK | 0-3 | Sturm Graz | Austria Bundesliga |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
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- Red Bull Salzburg v SCR Altach — match page 2026-10-18
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Before and after this match
- Sturm Graz, previous: Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz prediction
- Sturm Graz, next: Sturm Graz – Marseille, 2026-10-22
- Grazer AK, previous: Grazer AK – Red Bull Salzburg, 2026-10-10
- Grazer AK, next: Grazer AK vs SCR Altach: odds and pick