Austria Lustenau vs Lask Linz preview
In the Austria Bundesliga match between Austria Lustenau and Lask Linz, the 1X2 probabilities show Lask Linz at 62% to win, compared to Austria Lustenau's 17%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with an 8% chance according to our model. The expected goals are 1.74 for Austria Lustenau and 2.24 for Lask Linz, indicating a higher attacking potential for the visitors.
There is a strong likelihood for Over 2.5 goals at 76% and both teams to score at 74%. However, the recent form shows Austria Lustenau with a mixed record of W-L-W-L-D-W, while Lask Linz has been more consistent with D-L-L-W-W-W. This variance in form could influence the outcome and the scoring dynamics of the match.
Austria Lustenau vs Lask Linz: model vs market
| Source | Austria Lustenau | Draw | Lask Linz |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31% | 21% | 48% |
| Market | 12% | 19% | 68% |
| Published | 17% | 20% | 63% |
| Edge | +19% | +1% | -20% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.40 vs 1.93.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.42, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Austria Lustenau vs Lask Linz odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Lask Linz, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-10.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Austria Lustenau | 7.00 | 7.50 | +0.50 |
| Draw | 4.72 | 4.84 | +0.12 |
| Lask Linz | 1.38 | 1.36 | -0.02 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Austria Lustenau and Lask Linz expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.33
- Attack rating (Austria Lustenau / Lask Linz)
- 1.31 / 1.59
- Defence rating (Austria Lustenau / Lask Linz)
- 1.20 / 0.98
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Austria Lustenau vs Lask Linz score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Austria Lustenau goals. Columns: Lask Linz goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Austria Lustenau vs Lask Linz goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 78%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Austria Lustenau vs Lask Linz
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Austria Lustenau | 17% | 5.86 |
| Draw | 20% | 5.11 | |
| Lask Linz | 63% | 1.58 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 81% | 1.24 |
| Under 2.5 | 19% | 5.17 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 78% | 1.28 |
| No | 22% | 4.62 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Austria Lustenau or draw) | 37% | 2.73 |
| 12 (either side) | 80% | 1.24 | |
| X2 (draw or Lask Linz) | 83% | 1.21 | |
| Handicap -1 | Lask Linz win by 2+ | 30% | 3.33 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Austria Lustenau and Lask Linz recent form
Austria Lustenau
2W 1D 3L
Lask Linz
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Austria Lustenau at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Lask Linz away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.7 goals per match.
- They average 3.3 goals per game at home against 2.2 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Austria Lustenau at home only, Lask Linz away only.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg 2026-10-16
- Ried vs Austria Vienna — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Red Bull Salzburg v SCR Altach — match page 2026-10-18
- Wolfsberger AC v WSG Wattens — match page 2026-10-18
- Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK — team news & stats 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Austria Lustenau, previous: TSV Hartberg vs Austria Lustenau: odds and pick
- Lask Linz, previous: Lask Linz – Liverpool, 2026-10-14
- Lask Linz, next: Sporting CP v Lask Linz analysis