Grazer AK vs Red Bull Salzburg: model vs market
| Source | Grazer AK | Draw | Red Bull Salzburg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 13% | 21% | 65% |
| Market | 16% | 20% | 64% |
| Published | 15% | 20% | 64% |
| Edge | -3% | +1% | +2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.16 vs 0.89.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.49, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Grazer AK vs Red Bull Salzburg odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Red Bull Salzburg, 38 snapshots since 2026-09-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Grazer AK | 6.85 | 5.72 | -1.12 |
| Draw | 4.50 | 4.60 | +0.10 |
| Red Bull Salzburg | 1.40 | 1.45 | +0.05 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Grazer AK and Red Bull Salzburg expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.05
- Attack rating (Grazer AK / Red Bull Salzburg)
- 1.06 / 1.62
- Defence rating (Grazer AK / Red Bull Salzburg)
- 1.07 / 0.56
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Grazer AK vs Red Bull Salzburg score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Grazer AK goals. Columns: Red Bull Salzburg goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Grazer AK vs Red Bull Salzburg goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 53%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Grazer AK vs Red Bull Salzburg
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Grazer AK | 15% | 6.47 |
| Draw | 20% | 4.91 | |
| Red Bull Salzburg | 64% | 1.56 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59% | 1.70 |
| Under 2.5 | 41% | 2.43 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53% | 1.88 |
| No | 47% | 2.13 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Grazer AK or draw) | 36% | 2.79 |
| 12 (either side) | 80% | 1.26 | |
| X2 (draw or Red Bull Salzburg) | 85% | 1.18 | |
| Handicap -1 | Red Bull Salzburg win by 2+ | 43% | 2.35 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Grazer AK and Red Bull Salzburg recent form
Grazer AK
2W 2D 2L
Red Bull Salzburg
5W 1D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Grazer AK at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-0
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 6 matches.
Red Bull Salzburg away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-0
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
- They average 3.3 goals per game at home against 1.7 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Grazer AK at home only, Red Bull Salzburg away only.
Grazer AK vs Red Bull Salzburg head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Grazer AK 0 · draws 1 · Red Bull Salzburg 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-15 | Grazer AK | 1-1 | Red Bull Salzburg | Austria Bundesliga |
| 2025-08-09 | Red Bull Salzburg | 5-0 | Grazer AK | Austria Bundesliga |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- WSG Wattens vs Ried — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Austria Vienna v Sturm Graz — match page 2026-10-10
- SCR Altach vs Wolfsberger AC — team news & stats 2026-10-11
- TSV Hartberg v Austria Lustenau — match page 2026-10-11
- Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna 2026-10-11