Niger Tornadoes vs Barau FC Prediction & Betting Tips 30/10/2026

Niger Tornadoes vs Barau FC preview

In the Nigeria Premier Football League, Niger Tornadoes have a 48% chance of winning against Barau FC, who sit at 18%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which reflects Niger Tornadoes' expected goals of 1.15 compared to Barau FC's 0.61.

However, the match could see a different outcome if Barau FC improves their recent form, which includes 4 draws and only 1 win in their last 6 matches. With both teams to score at 32% and Over 2.5 goals at just 26%, a low-scoring game seems probable, but surprises can happen in football.

Niger Tornadoes vs Barau FC: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Niger Tornadoes	Draw	Barau FC
Model	48%	34%	18%
Market	—	—	—
Published	48%	34%	18%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.15 vs 0.61.
Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Niger Tornadoes and Barau FC expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.15Niger Tornadoes

0.61Barau FC

Total expected goals: 1.76
Attack rating (Niger Tornadoes / Barau FC): 0.81 / 1.19
Defence rating (Niger Tornadoes / Barau FC): 0.83 / 0.96

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Niger Tornadoes vs Barau FC score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 18.5% 9.3% 3.2% 0.7% 0.1% 1 18.6% 13.3% 3.7% 0.7% 0.1% 2 11.4% 6.9% 2.1% 0.4% 0.1% 3 4.3% 2.6% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 4+ 1.6% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Niger Tornadoes goals. Columns: Barau FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Niger Tornadoes vs Barau FC goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 82%

Over 1.5 54%

Over 2.5 26%

Over 3.5 10%

Both teams to score: 32%
No goals (0–0): 18%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Niger Tornadoes vs Barau FC

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Niger Tornadoes	48%	2.10
	Draw	34%	2.94
	Barau FC	18%	5.45
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	26%	3.88
	Under 2.5	74%	1.35
Both teams to score	Yes	32%	3.09
	No	68%	1.48
Double chance	1X (Niger Tornadoes or draw)	82%	1.22
	12 (either side)	66%	1.52
	X2 (draw or Barau FC)	52%	1.91
Handicap -1	Niger Tornadoes win by 2+	21%	4.71
	Push (exactly one goal)	26%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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Niger Tornadoes and Barau FC recent form

Niger Tornadoes 2W 2D 2L

Barau FC 1W 4D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Niger Tornadoes at home

Record (W-D-L): 3-2-0
Win rate: 60%
Goals for / match: 1.20
Goals against / match: 0.60
Clean sheets: 2 of 5

They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
60% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Barau FC away

Record (W-D-L): 0-4-1
Win rate: 0%
Goals for / match: 0.40
Goals against / match: 1.00
Clean sheets: 3 of 5

They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Niger Tornadoes at home only, Barau FC away only.

Niger Tornadoes vs Barau FC head-to-head

Last 2 meetings: Niger Tornadoes 1 · draws 0 · Barau FC 1.

50% 0% 50%

Niger TornadoesDrawsBarau FC

Previous meetings
Date	Home	Score	Away	Competition
2026-01-14	Barau FC	2-1	Niger Tornadoes	Nigeria Premier Football League
2025-12-28	Niger Tornadoes	2-0	Barau FC	Nigeria Premier Football League

Before and after this match

Niger Tornadoes, previous: Abia Warriors – Niger Tornadoes, 2026-10-25
Barau FC, previous: Barau FC v Kwara United analysis

Prediction snapshot Niger Tornadoes to win Predicted score 1 – 0 C Bet on Niger Tornadoes