Glentoran vs Ballymena United preview
In the Northern Ireland Premiership fixture between Glentoran and Ballymena United, the 1X2 probabilities show Glentoran at 43%, Ballymena United at 27%, and a draw at 30%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Glentoran, with a probability of 11%.
Glentoran has a recent form of W-D-W-W-W-L, while Ballymena United's form is W-L-W-W-D-D. The expected goals indicate Glentoran at 1.35 and Ballymena United at 1.03. Both teams to score stands at 49%, and Over 2.5 goals is at 43%. Factors such as a sudden change in form or unexpected injuries could affect these predictions.
Glentoran vs Ballymena United: model vs market
| Source | Glentoran | Draw | Ballymena United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43% | 30% | 27% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 43% | 30% | 27% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.35 vs 1.03.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Glentoran and Ballymena United expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.39
- Attack rating (Glentoran / Ballymena United)
- 0.90 / 1.06
- Defence rating (Glentoran / Ballymena United)
- 0.73 / 0.98
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Glentoran vs Ballymena United score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Glentoran goals. Columns: Ballymena United goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Glentoran vs Ballymena United goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 49%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Glentoran vs Ballymena United
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Glentoran | 43% | 2.33 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.35 | |
| Ballymena United | 27% | 3.66 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 43% | 2.34 |
| Under 2.5 | 57% | 1.75 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49% | 2.04 |
| No | 51% | 1.96 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Glentoran or draw) | 73% | 1.38 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.43 | |
| X2 (draw or Ballymena United) | 57% | 1.75 | |
| Handicap -1 | Glentoran win by 2+ | 21% | 4.83 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Glentoran and Ballymena United recent form
Glentoran
4W 1D 1L
Ballymena United
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Glentoran at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-1-2
- Win rate
- 57%
- Goals for / match
- 1.43
- Goals against / match
- 0.71
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 7
- They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Ballymena United away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-3
- Win rate
- 29%
- Goals for / match
- 1.71
- Goals against / match
- 1.57
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 7
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Glentoran at home only, Ballymena United away only.
Glentoran vs Ballymena United head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Glentoran 4 · draws 0 · Ballymena United 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Ballymena United | 0-2 | Glentoran | Northern Ireland Premiership |
| 2026-02-14 | Glentoran | 2-1 | Ballymena United | Northern Ireland Premiership |
| 2025-10-18 | Glentoran | 2-0 | Ballymena United | Northern Ireland Premiership |
| 2025-09-06 | Ballymena United | 0-2 | Glentoran | Northern Ireland Premiership |
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
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Before and after this match
- Glentoran, previous: Glentoran vs Limavady United prediction
- Ballymena United, previous: Ballymena United – Crusaders FC, 2026-10-17