Updated

Norway 1. Division · Semi-finals - Relegation

Kjelsås vs Bjarg

· Grefsen Stadion, Oslo· Referee J. W. Grundt

Full time2 – 3

Alin prediction was Kjelsås to win

Cmodel only, no market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
KjelsåsDrawBjarg

Kjelsås vs Bjarg: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceKjelsåsDrawBjarg
Model38%24%38%
Market———
Published38%24%38%
Edge———

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Kjelsås and Bjarg expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.74Kjelsås
1.73Bjarg
Total expected goals
3.47
Attack rating (Kjelsås / Bjarg)
0.99 / 1.15
Defence rating (Kjelsås / Bjarg)
0.95 / 0.92

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Kjelsås vs Bjarg score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.1% 4.5% 4.7% 2.7% 1.7% 1 4.5% 10.3% 8.1% 4.7% 3.0% 2 4.7% 8.2% 7.0% 4.1% 2.6% 3 2.7% 4.7% 4.1% 2.4% 1.5% 4+ 1.8% 3.0% 2.6% 1.5% 1.0%

Rows: Kjelsås goals. Columns: Bjarg goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Kjelsås vs Bjarg goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%
Over 1.5 87%
Over 2.5 67%
Over 3.5 46%
Both teams to score
69%
No goals (0–0)
4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Kjelsås vs Bjarg

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Kjelsås38%2.62
Draw24%4.12
Bjarg38%2.66
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.567%1.49
Under 2.533%3.06
Both teams to scoreYes69%1.45
No31%3.20
Double chance1X (Kjelsås or draw)62%1.60
12 (either side)76%1.32
X2 (draw or Bjarg)62%1.62
Handicap -1Kjelsås win by 2+20%4.96
Push (exactly one goal)18%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Kjelsås and Bjarg recent form

Kjelsås 3W 1D 2L
Bjarg 4W 0D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Kjelsås vs Bjarg head-to-head

Last 1 meetings: Kjelsås 0 · draws 0 · Bjarg 1.

KjelsåsDrawsBjarg
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-11-07Bjarg2-0KjelsåsNorway 1. Division

Before and after this match