Bærum vs Lillestrom: model vs market
| Source | Bærum | Draw | Lillestrom |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 18% | 23% | 60% |
| Market | 6% | 10% | 84% |
| Published | 9% | 14% | 78% |
| Edge | +12% | +12% | -24% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.05 vs 1.04.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Bærum vs Lillestrom odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Lillestrom, 2 snapshots since 2026-09-30.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bærum | 13.00 | 16.00 | +3.00 |
| Draw | 7.00 | 8.71 | +1.71 |
| Lillestrom | 1.15 | 1.09 | -0.06 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Bærum and Lillestrom expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.09
- Attack rating (Bærum / Lillestrom)
- 0.98 / 0.64
- Defence rating (Bærum / Lillestrom)
- 1.01 / 0.76
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Bærum vs Lillestrom score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Bærum goals. Columns: Lillestrom goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Bærum vs Lillestrom goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Bærum vs Lillestrom
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bærum | 9% | 11.55 |
| Draw | 14% | 7.38 | |
| Lillestrom | 78% | 1.29 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60% | 1.67 |
| Under 2.5 | 40% | 2.48 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.74 |
| No | 43% | 2.34 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Bærum or draw) | 22% | 4.50 |
| 12 (either side) | 86% | 1.16 | |
| X2 (draw or Lillestrom) | 91% | 1.09 | |
| Handicap -1 | Lillestrom win by 2+ | 37% | 2.69 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Bærum and Lillestrom recent form
Bærum
1W 0D 1L
Lillestrom
3W 0D 3L
Last 2 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Bærum at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 4.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 1
Lillestrom away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 3.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Bærum at home only, Lillestrom away only.