Flint vs Sandefjord: model vs market
| Source | Flint | Draw | Sandefjord |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 8% | 17% | 75% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 8% | 17% | 75% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.55 vs 0.77.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Flint and Sandefjord expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.31
- Attack rating (Flint / Sandefjord)
- 0.84 / 1.02
- Defence rating (Flint / Sandefjord)
- 0.77 / 0.64
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Flint vs Sandefjord score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Flint goals. Columns: Sandefjord goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Flint vs Sandefjord goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 50%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Flint vs Sandefjord
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Flint | 8% | 11.95 |
| Draw | 17% | 6.06 | |
| Sandefjord | 75% | 1.33 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64% | 1.55 |
| Under 2.5 | 36% | 2.80 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50% | 1.99 |
| No | 50% | 2.01 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Flint or draw) | 25% | 4.02 |
| 12 (either side) | 83% | 1.20 | |
| X2 (draw or Sandefjord) | 92% | 1.09 | |
| Handicap -1 | Sandefjord win by 2+ | 54% | 1.85 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Flint and Sandefjord recent form
Flint
1W 0D 1L
Sandefjord
3W 2D 1L
Last 2 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Flint at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 1
Sandefjord away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 15.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Flint at home only, Sandefjord away only.
Flint vs Sandefjord head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Flint 0 · draws 0 · Sandefjord 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-06-22 | Flint | 1-5 | Sandefjord | NM Cupen |