NM Cupen · Round of 64

Follo vs Sarpsborg 08 FF

· Ski Stadion, Ski

Full time0 – 2

Alin prediction was Sarpsborg 08 FF to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 2

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
FolloDrawSarpsborg 08 FF

Follo vs Sarpsborg 08 FF: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceFolloDrawSarpsborg 08 FF
Model19%24%57%
Market6%12%82%
Published9%15%76%
Edge+12%+12%-24%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.92 vs 1.02.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Follo and Sarpsborg 08 FF expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.02Follo
1.92Sarpsborg 08 FF
Total expected goals
2.93
Attack rating (Follo / Sarpsborg 08 FF)
1.03 / 0.67
Defence rating (Follo / Sarpsborg 08 FF)
0.89 / 0.69

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Follo vs Sarpsborg 08 FF score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.4% 9.2% 9.8% 6.2% 4.6% 1 4.4% 11.4% 9.9% 6.3% 4.7% 2 2.8% 5.3% 5.0% 3.2% 2.4% 3 0.9% 1.8% 1.7% 1.1% 0.8% 4+ 0.3% 0.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3%

Rows: Follo goals. Columns: Sarpsborg 08 FF goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Follo vs Sarpsborg 08 FF goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 80%
Over 2.5 56%
Over 3.5 34%
Both teams to score
55%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Follo vs Sarpsborg 08 FF

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Follo9%10.82
Draw15%6.58
Sarpsborg 08 FF76%1.32
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.556%1.78
Under 2.544%2.28
Both teams to scoreYes55%1.80
No45%2.24
Double chance1X (Follo or draw)24%4.09
12 (either side)85%1.18
X2 (draw or Sarpsborg 08 FF)91%1.10
Handicap -1Sarpsborg 08 FF win by 2+34%2.91
Push (exactly one goal)23%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Follo and Sarpsborg 08 FF recent form

Follo 2W 0D 1L
Sarpsborg 08 FF 1W 3D 2L

Last 3 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Sarpsborg 08 FF away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
0.00
Clean sheets
1 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Follo at home only, Sarpsborg 08 FF away only.