Hønefoss vs KFUM Oslo: model vs market
| Source | Hønefoss | Draw | KFUM Oslo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 20% | 23% | 57% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 20% | 23% | 57% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.04 vs 1.15.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Hønefoss and KFUM Oslo expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.19
- Attack rating (Hønefoss / KFUM Oslo)
- 1.12 / 0.75
- Defence rating (Hønefoss / KFUM Oslo)
- 0.85 / 0.73
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Hønefoss vs KFUM Oslo score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Hønefoss goals. Columns: KFUM Oslo goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Hønefoss vs KFUM Oslo goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 60%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Hønefoss vs KFUM Oslo
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hønefoss | 20% | 5.00 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.33 | |
| KFUM Oslo | 57% | 1.76 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62% | 1.62 |
| Under 2.5 | 38% | 2.62 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60% | 1.65 |
| No | 40% | 2.53 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Hønefoss or draw) | 43% | 2.32 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or KFUM Oslo) | 80% | 1.25 | |
| Handicap -1 | KFUM Oslo win by 2+ | 35% | 2.86 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Hønefoss and KFUM Oslo recent form
Hønefoss
2W 0D 1L
KFUM Oslo
3W 1D 2L
Last 3 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
KFUM Oslo away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 4.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Hønefoss at home only, KFUM Oslo away only.
Hønefoss vs KFUM Oslo head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Hønefoss 0 · draws 0 · KFUM Oslo 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-05-24 | Hønefoss | 1-4 | KFUM Oslo | NM Cupen |