Madla vs Viking: model vs market
| Source | Madla | Draw | Viking |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 5% | 10% | 85% |
| Market | 4% | 11% | 85% |
| Published | 5% | 11% | 85% |
| Edge | +1% | -1% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.43 vs 0.85.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Madla vs Viking odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Viking, 2 snapshots since 2026-09-30.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Madla | 14.00 | 20.50 | +6.50 |
| Draw | 6.60 | 8.39 | +1.79 |
| Viking | 1.15 | 1.08 | -0.07 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Madla and Viking expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.28
- Attack rating (Madla / Viking)
- 0.97 / 1.12
- Defence rating (Madla / Viking)
- 0.96 / 0.62
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Madla vs Viking score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Madla goals. Columns: Viking goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Madla vs Viking goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 56%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Madla vs Viking
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Madla | 5% | 21.65 |
| Draw | 11% | 9.31 | |
| Viking | 85% | 1.18 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 80% | 1.25 |
| Under 2.5 | 20% | 5.01 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56% | 1.79 |
| No | 44% | 2.26 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Madla or draw) | 15% | 6.51 |
| 12 (either side) | 89% | 1.12 | |
| X2 (draw or Viking) | 95% | 1.05 | |
| Handicap -1 | Viking win by 2+ | 69% | 1.45 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Madla and Viking recent form
Madla
1W 0D 1L
Viking
4W 1D 1L
Last 2 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Madla at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 3.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
Viking away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 3.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Madla at home only, Viking away only.