Raufoss vs Start: model vs market
| Source | Raufoss | Draw | Start |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 10% | 18% | 73% |
| Market | 17% | 22% | 61% |
| Published | 15% | 21% | 64% |
| Edge | -7% | -4% | +11% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.49 vs 0.84.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Start below the model: +11.2 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Raufoss and Start expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.33
- Attack rating (Raufoss / Start)
- 0.70 / 0.71
- Defence rating (Raufoss / Start)
- 1.10 / 0.85
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Raufoss vs Start score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Raufoss goals. Columns: Start goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Raufoss vs Start goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 53%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Raufoss vs Start
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Raufoss | 15% | 6.61 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.85 | |
| Start | 64% | 1.56 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65% | 1.55 |
| Under 2.5 | 35% | 2.83 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53% | 1.89 |
| No | 47% | 2.12 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Raufoss or draw) | 36% | 2.80 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.26 | |
| X2 (draw or Start) | 85% | 1.18 | |
| Handicap -1 | Start win by 2+ | 51% | 1.95 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Raufoss and Start recent form
Raufoss
2W 0D 4L
Start
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Start away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
League matches this season before kick-off: Raufoss at home only, Start away only.
Raufoss vs Start head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Raufoss 4 · draws 3 · Start 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-04 | Start | 4-0 | Raufoss | Norway 1. Division |
| 2025-05-11 | Raufoss | 0-0 | Start | Norway 1. Division |
| 2024-08-26 | Start | 1-2 | Raufoss | 1. Division |
| 2024-06-23 | Raufoss | 2-1 | Start | 1. Division |
| 2023-08-20 | Raufoss | 2-1 | Start | 1. Division |
| 2023-04-30 | Start | 1-3 | Raufoss | 1. Division |
| 2022-09-17 | Raufoss | 1-2 | Start | 1. Division |
| 2022-05-26 | Start | 2-2 | Raufoss | 1. Division |
| 2021-09-29 | Raufoss | 1-3 | Start | 1. Division |
| 2021-07-17 | Start | 1-1 | Raufoss | 1. Division |