Farense vs Chaves: model vs market
| Source | Farense | Draw | Chaves |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52% | 28% | 20% |
| Market | 43% | 28% | 29% |
| Published | 45% | 28% | 27% |
| Edge | +9% | 0% | -9% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.57 vs 0.89.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Farense below the model: +9.1 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Farense vs Chaves odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Farense, 13 snapshots since 2026-09-28.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Farense | 2.15 | 2.14 | -0.00 |
| Draw | 3.28 | 3.26 | -0.02 |
| Chaves | 3.25 | 3.15 | -0.10 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Farense and Chaves expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.46
- Attack rating (Farense / Chaves)
- 0.93 / 1.22
- Defence rating (Farense / Chaves)
- 0.63 / 1.35
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Farense vs Chaves score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Farense goals. Columns: Chaves goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Farense vs Chaves goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 48%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Farense vs Chaves
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Farense | 45% | 2.22 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.57 | |
| Chaves | 27% | 3.72 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45% | 2.24 |
| Under 2.5 | 55% | 1.81 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48% | 2.08 |
| No | 52% | 1.92 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Farense or draw) | 73% | 1.37 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Chaves) | 55% | 1.82 | |
| Handicap -1 | Farense win by 2+ | 28% | 3.58 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Farense and Chaves recent form
Farense
3W 2D 1L
Chaves
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Farense at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Chaves away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Farense at home only, Chaves away only.
Farense vs Chaves head-to-head
Last 8 meetings: Farense 3 · draws 1 · Chaves 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-22 | Chaves | 2-0 | Farense | Segunda Liga |
| 2025-09-28 | Farense | 0-2 | Chaves | Segunda Liga |
| 2024-02-04 | Chaves | 1-1 | Farense | Primeira Liga |
| 2023-08-26 | Farense | 5-0 | Chaves | Primeira Liga |
| 2022-04-30 | Farense | 1-2 | Chaves | Segunda Liga |
| 2021-12-18 | Chaves | 2-1 | Farense | Segunda Liga |
| 2021-07-24 | Chaves | 1-2 | Farense | Taça da Liga |
| 2019-11-30 | Farense | 1-0 | Chaves | Segunda Liga |