Morton vs Ayr Utd preview
In the upcoming match between Morton and Ayr Utd, the 1X2 probabilities show Morton at 34%, a draw at 32%, and Ayr Utd also at 34%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 0-1, with a probability of 11%. Both teams to score stands at 44%, while Over 2.5 goals is at 36%.
Morton has had a mixed recent form with 2 wins and 4 losses, while Ayr Utd has 1 win, 1 draw, and 4 losses in their last 6 matches. Both teams have an expected goals figure of 1.06, indicating a closely matched contest. However, the recent form and head-to-head record, with Morton winning 2 and Ayr Utd winning 3 of their last 10 encounters, could influence the outcome.
Morton vs Ayr Utd: model vs market
| Source | Morton | Draw | Ayr Utd |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34% | 32% | 34% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 34% | 32% | 34% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Morton and Ayr Utd expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.12
- Attack rating (Morton / Ayr Utd)
- 0.85 / 0.80
- Defence rating (Morton / Ayr Utd)
- 1.27 / 0.97
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Morton vs Ayr Utd score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Morton goals. Columns: Ayr Utd goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Morton vs Ayr Utd goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 44%
- No goals (0–0)
- 13%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Morton vs Ayr Utd
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Morton | 34% | 2.97 |
| Draw | 32% | 3.08 | |
| Ayr Utd | 34% | 2.96 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 36% | 2.81 |
| Under 2.5 | 64% | 1.55 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44% | 2.27 |
| No | 56% | 1.79 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Morton or draw) | 66% | 1.51 |
| 12 (either side) | 68% | 1.48 | |
| X2 (draw or Ayr Utd) | 66% | 1.51 | |
| Handicap -1 | Ayr Utd win by 2+ | 14% | 7.25 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Morton and Ayr Utd recent form
Morton
2W 0D 4L
Ayr Utd
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Morton at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-5
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 0.83
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 1 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
Ayr Utd away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-2
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Morton at home only, Ayr Utd away only.
Morton vs Ayr Utd head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Morton 2 · draws 5 · Ayr Utd 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Ayr Utd | 1-1 | Morton | Scotland Championship |
| 2026-03-21 | Ayr Utd | 0-1 | Morton | Scotland Championship |
| 2025-12-27 | Morton | 1-1 | Ayr Utd | Scotland Championship |
| 2025-10-18 | Ayr Utd | 2-1 | Morton | Scotland Championship |
| 2025-08-23 | Morton | 2-2 | Ayr Utd | Scotland Championship |
| 2025-03-08 | Morton | 2-1 | Ayr Utd | Championship |
| 2024-12-28 | Ayr Utd | 0-0 | Morton | Championship |
| 2024-11-30 | Ayr Utd | 2-0 | Morton | Scotland FA Cup |
| 2024-11-08 | Morton | 1-1 | Ayr Utd | Championship |
| 2024-09-28 | Ayr Utd | 1-0 | Morton | Championship |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Livingston vs Arbroath 2026-10-24
- Partick v Stenhousemuir — match page 2026-10-24
- Raith Rovers vs Inverness CT 2026-10-24
- Queen's Park v Dunfermline — match page 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- Morton, previous: Morton vs Queen's Park prediction
- Ayr Utd, previous: Ayr Utd – Partick, 2026-10-16