Morton vs Ayr Utd preview
Morton faces Ayr Utd with 31% chances of winning for Morton and 40% for Ayr Utd. The most likely scoreline predicted is 0-1, occurring at 11%. Both teams to score stands at 44%, while Over 2.5 goals is at 36%.
Morton has shown strong recent form with 4 wins in their last 6 matches, but they lost their last game. Ayr Utd's form is mixed, with 2 wins in their last 6. The head-to-head record shows Morton with 2 wins, Ayr Utd with 3, and 5 draws in the last 10 encounters. A potential issue for the prediction could be Morton's recent dip in performance.
Morton vs Ayr Utd: model vs market
| Source | Morton | Draw | Ayr Utd |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34% | 32% | 34% |
| Market | 29% | 28% | 42% |
| Published | 31% | 29% | 40% |
| Edge | +1% | +1% | -2% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.20, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -11.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Morton vs Ayr Utd odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Ayr Utd, 11 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Morton | 3.30 | 3.10 | -0.20 |
| Draw | 3.24 | 3.25 | +0.01 |
| Ayr Utd | 2.10 | 2.15 | +0.05 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Morton and Ayr Utd expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.43
- Attack rating (Morton / Ayr Utd)
- 1.23 / 0.95
- Defence rating (Morton / Ayr Utd)
- 1.40 / 1.25
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Morton vs Ayr Utd score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Morton goals. Columns: Ayr Utd goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Morton vs Ayr Utd goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 44%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Morton vs Ayr Utd
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Morton | 31% | 3.28 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.43 | |
| Ayr Utd | 40% | 2.48 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 36% | 2.81 |
| Under 2.5 | 64% | 1.55 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44% | 2.27 |
| No | 56% | 1.79 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Morton or draw) | 60% | 1.68 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| X2 (draw or Ayr Utd) | 69% | 1.44 | |
| Handicap -1 | Ayr Utd win by 2+ | 12% | 8.20 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 14% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Morton and Ayr Utd recent form
Morton
4W 0D 2L
Ayr Utd
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Morton at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-5
- Win rate
- 29%
- Goals for / match
- 1.29
- Goals against / match
- 1.86
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 7
- They have won 4 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 13 matches.
Ayr Utd away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-3
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 13 matches.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Morton at home only, Ayr Utd away only.
Morton vs Ayr Utd head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Morton 2 · draws 5 · Ayr Utd 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Ayr Utd | 1-1 | Morton | Scotland Championship |
| 2026-03-21 | Ayr Utd | 0-1 | Morton | Scotland Championship |
| 2025-12-27 | Morton | 1-1 | Ayr Utd | Scotland Championship |
| 2025-10-18 | Ayr Utd | 2-1 | Morton | Scotland Championship |
| 2025-08-23 | Morton | 2-2 | Ayr Utd | Scotland Championship |
| 2025-03-08 | Morton | 2-1 | Ayr Utd | Championship |
| 2024-12-28 | Ayr Utd | 0-0 | Morton | Championship |
| 2024-11-30 | Ayr Utd | 2-0 | Morton | Scotland FA Cup |
| 2024-11-08 | Morton | 1-1 | Ayr Utd | Championship |
| 2024-09-28 | Ayr Utd | 1-0 | Morton | Championship |
Before and after this match
- Morton, previous: Annan Athletic vs Morton prediction
- Ayr Utd, previous: Largs Thistle – Ayr Utd, 2026-11-28