Amorebieta vs UD Logroñés

Amorebieta vs UD Logroñés: model vs market

• Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.77 vs 0.82.
• Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 4 vs 0 for the opposition.
• The market prices UD Logroñés below our published probability: +2.8 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.02, recorded 2026-11-03 — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +2.1% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

Amorebieta vs UD Logroñés odds movement

Median bookmaker price on UD Logroñés, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-28.

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Amorebieta and UD Logroñés expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

Total expected goals

2.58

Attack rating (Amorebieta / UD Logroñés)

0.83 / 0.69

Defence rating (Amorebieta / UD Logroñés)

1.24 / 0.79

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Amorebieta vs UD Logroñés score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

Rows: Amorebieta goals. Columns: UD Logroñés goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Amorebieta vs UD Logroñés goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Both teams to score

47%

No goals (0–0)

9%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

Amorebieta and UD Logroñés recent form

Amorebieta L 0W 0D 1L

UD Logroñés LDDW 1W 2D 1L

Last 1 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.