Deportiva Minera vs FC Cartagena preview
In the Copa del Rey fixture between Deportiva Minera and FC Cartagena, the 1X2 probabilities show FC Cartagena at 48% to win, compared to Deportiva Minera's 25%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 10% chance, indicating a tight match. Both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals each have a 58% probability, suggesting a potential for an open game.
Deportiva Minera's expected goals stand at 1.11, while FC Cartagena has a higher figure of 1.92. This discrepancy could lead to a scenario where FC Cartagena's attacking strength overwhelms Deportiva Minera. However, if Deportiva Minera can capitalize on their chances, they might challenge the expected outcome.
Deportiva Minera vs FC Cartagena: model vs market
| Source | Deportiva Minera | Draw | FC Cartagena |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 19% | 24% | 58% |
| Market | 30% | 29% | 41% |
| Published | 27% | 28% | 45% |
| Edge | -3% | -1% | +4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.98 vs 1.06.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 5 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices FC Cartagena below our published probability: +4.2 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.37, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +6.9% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Deportiva Minera vs FC Cartagena odds movement
Median bookmaker price on FC Cartagena, 13 snapshots since 2026-10-28.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deportiva Minera | 3.54 | 3.05 | -0.49 |
| Draw | 3.36 | 3.18 | -0.18 |
| FC Cartagena | 2.02 | 2.25 | +0.23 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Deportiva Minera and FC Cartagena expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.04
- Attack rating (Deportiva Minera / FC Cartagena)
- 1.11 / 0.80
- Defence rating (Deportiva Minera / FC Cartagena)
- 1.19 / 0.77
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Deportiva Minera vs FC Cartagena score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Deportiva Minera goals. Columns: FC Cartagena goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Deportiva Minera vs FC Cartagena goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Deportiva Minera vs FC Cartagena
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Deportiva Minera | 27% | 3.66 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.63 | |
| FC Cartagena | 45% | 2.22 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59% | 1.71 |
| Under 2.5 | 41% | 2.42 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.74 |
| No | 43% | 2.35 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Deportiva Minera or draw) | 55% | 1.82 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or FC Cartagena) | 73% | 1.38 | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Cartagena win by 2+ | 35% | 2.85 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Deportiva Minera and FC Cartagena recent form
Deportiva Minera
1W 1D 1L
FC Cartagena
3W 0D 2L
Last 3 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
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