MLMijas Las Lagunas vs Real Jaén

Mijas Las Lagunas vs Real Jaén: model vs market

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.19, recorded 2026-11-03 — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.9% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

Mijas Las Lagunas vs Real Jaén odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Real Jaén, 5 snapshots since 2026-10-28.

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Mijas Las Lagunas and Real Jaén expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

Total expected goals

3.20

Attack rating (Mijas Las Lagunas / Real Jaén)

1.00 / 0.81

Defence rating (Mijas Las Lagunas / Real Jaén)

1.00 / 1.23

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Mijas Las Lagunas vs Real Jaén score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

Rows: Mijas Las Lagunas goals. Columns: Real Jaén goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Mijas Las Lagunas vs Real Jaén goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Both teams to score

65%

No goals (0–0)

5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

Mijas Las Lagunas and Real Jaén recent form

Real Jaén LL 0W 0D 2L

Last 2 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.