Navalcarnero vs Real Betis preview
In the Copa del Rey fixture between Navalcarnero and Real Betis, the 1X2 probabilities show Real Betis at 78%, while Navalcarnero stands at just 9%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with expected goals of 1.34 for Navalcarnero and 2.34 for Real Betis. The model suggests a strong chance for Over 2.5 goals at 71% and both teams to score at 67%.
However, factors that could change this outcome include an unexpected defensive performance from Navalcarnero or an off day for Real Betis. Recent form indicates that Real Betis has been more consistent, with a record of D-W-L-W-W-D, while Navalcarnero's latest result was a loss followed by a win.
Navalcarnero vs Real Betis: model vs market
| Source | Navalcarnero | Draw | Real Betis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 17% | 20% | 63% |
| Market | 5% | 10% | 85% |
| Published | 8% | 13% | 79% |
| Edge | +3% | +2% | -5% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.46 vs 1.25.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.11, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -11.9% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Navalcarnero vs Real Betis odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Real Betis, 13 snapshots since 2026-10-28.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Navalcarnero | 18.00 | 18.88 | +0.88 |
| Draw | 9.11 | 9.05 | -0.06 |
| Real Betis | 1.10 | 1.10 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Navalcarnero and Real Betis expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.71
- Attack rating (Navalcarnero / Real Betis)
- 1.06 / 1.11
- Defence rating (Navalcarnero / Real Betis)
- 1.07 / 0.95
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Navalcarnero vs Real Betis score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Navalcarnero goals. Columns: Real Betis goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Navalcarnero vs Real Betis goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 66%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Navalcarnero vs Real Betis
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Navalcarnero | 8% | 12.55 |
| Draw | 13% | 7.91 | |
| Real Betis | 79% | 1.26 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72% | 1.40 |
| Under 2.5 | 28% | 3.53 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66% | 1.52 |
| No | 34% | 2.94 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Navalcarnero or draw) | 21% | 4.85 |
| 12 (either side) | 87% | 1.14 | |
| X2 (draw or Real Betis) | 92% | 1.09 | |
| Handicap -1 | Real Betis win by 2+ | 43% | 2.35 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Navalcarnero and Real Betis recent form
Navalcarnero
1W 0D 1L
Real Betis
4W 1D 1L
Last 2 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
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Before and after this match
- Real Betis, previous: Elche vs Real Betis prediction