Portugalete vs RUReal Unión

Portugalete vs Real Unión: model vs market

• Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.04 vs 0.99.
• The market prices Real Unión below our published probability: +5.1 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.35, recorded 2026-11-03 — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +7.0% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

Portugalete vs Real Unión odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Real Unión, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-28.

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Portugalete and Real Unión expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

Total expected goals

3.03

Attack rating (Portugalete / Real Unión)

0.80 / 1.00

Defence rating (Portugalete / Real Unión)

0.99 / 1.00

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Portugalete vs Real Unión score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

Rows: Portugalete goals. Columns: Real Unión goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Portugalete vs Real Unión goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Both teams to score

56%

No goals (0–0)

6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

Portugalete and Real Unión recent form

Portugalete LW 1W 0D 1L

Last 2 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.