Updated

Copa del Rey · Round of 128

Reddis vs Barakaldo

· Estadi Municipal de Reus, Reus

Alin prediction Barakaldo to win

Cblended with market odds

Predicted score 0 – 2

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
ReddisDrawBarakaldo
  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.13 vs 0.97.
  • RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Best market odds
Reddis4.10 Draw3.65 Barakaldo1.97

Price as of

Expected return at 1.97: +3.4% per unit staked

18+ · T&Cs apply · best price across 9 bookmakers, each at its own last update; the highlighted price is our pick.

Reddis vs Barakaldo preview

In the Copa del Rey fixture between Reddis and Barakaldo, the 1X2 probabilities show Barakaldo at 52%, compared to Reddis at 22%. The most likely scoreline from our model is 0-2, which aligns with Barakaldo's expected goals of 2.13 against Reddis's 0.97.

While the model indicates a 60% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance for both teams to score, these outcomes could be affected by Reddis's recent form, which includes a loss and a draw. Barakaldo, on the other hand, comes off a win, which may influence their performance positively.

Reddis vs Barakaldo: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceReddisDrawBarakaldo
Model15%22%63%
Market23%28%49%
Published21%26%52%
Edge-2%-1%+3%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.13 vs 0.97.
  • Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 2 vs 0 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Barakaldo below our published probability: +3.5 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.97, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +3.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

Reddis vs Barakaldo odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Barakaldo, 13 snapshots since 2026-10-28.

Opened 1.93Now 1.90 -0.03
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Reddis3.824.00+0.18
Draw3.423.38-0.04
Barakaldo1.931.90-0.03

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Reddis and Barakaldo expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.97Reddis
2.13Barakaldo
Total expected goals
3.09
Attack rating (Reddis / Barakaldo)
0.80 / 1.05
Defence rating (Reddis / Barakaldo)
0.98 / 0.98

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Reddis vs Barakaldo score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.5% 8.7% 10.2% 7.3% 6.3% 1 3.5% 10.3% 9.9% 7.0% 6.1% 2 2.1% 4.5% 4.8% 3.4% 3.0% 3 0.7% 1.5% 1.5% 1.1% 1.0% 4+ 0.2% 0.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3%

Rows: Reddis goals. Columns: Barakaldo goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Reddis vs Barakaldo goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 82%
Over 2.5 60%
Over 3.5 37%
Both teams to score
56%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Reddis vs Barakaldo

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Reddis21%4.69
Draw26%3.82
Barakaldo52%1.90
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.560%1.67
Under 2.540%2.48
Both teams to scoreYes56%1.80
No44%2.25
Double chance1X (Reddis or draw)48%2.11
12 (either side)74%1.35
X2 (draw or Barakaldo)79%1.27
Handicap -1Barakaldo win by 2+40%2.48
Push (exactly one goal)23%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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Reddis and Barakaldo recent form

Reddis 0W 1D 1L
Barakaldo 1W 0D 1L

Last 2 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Other Round of 128 fixtures

Prediction snapshot Barakaldo to win Predicted score 0 – 2 C Bet on Barakaldo
Our pick: Barakaldo to win 18+ Bet Now