Tavernes vs Valencia Prediction & Betting Tips 10/11/2026

Tavernes vs Valencia preview

In the Copa del Rey fixture between Tavernes and Valencia, the 1X2 probabilities show Valencia at 82%, while Tavernes sits at 8%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 0-1, occurring with a 12% chance. Valencia's expected goals stand at 1.30, compared to Tavernes' 0.98, indicating a clear attacking advantage for the visitors.

However, the match could deviate from expectations if Tavernes improves their recent form, which includes two draws. Additionally, both teams to score is at 47%, suggesting that while Valencia is favored to win, there's a possibility Tavernes could find the back of the net. The Over 2.5 goals probability is at 40%, reflecting uncertainty in the overall goal count.

Tavernes vs Valencia: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Tavernes	Draw	Valencia
Model	23%	31%	47%
Market	2%	4%	95%
Published	7%	10%	83%
Edge	+5%	+7%	-12%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.33 vs 0.85.
Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.01, recorded 2026-10-28 — the top price across the 5 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -16.6% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

Tavernes vs Valencia odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Valencia, 13 snapshots since 2026-10-28.

Opened 1.01Now 1.00 -0.01

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Tavernes	50.00	51.00	+1.00
Draw	26.00	26.00	+0.00
Valencia	1.01	1.00	-0.01

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Tavernes and Valencia expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.85Tavernes

1.33Valencia

Total expected goals: 2.17
Attack rating (Tavernes / Valencia): 0.80 / 0.81
Defence rating (Tavernes / Valencia): 0.80 / 0.86

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Tavernes vs Valencia score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 12.6% 13.8% 10.0% 4.4% 2.0% 1 8.4% 14.1% 8.5% 3.8% 1.7% 2 4.1% 5.4% 3.6% 1.6% 0.7% 3 1.2% 1.5% 1.0% 0.4% 0.2% 4+ 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1%

Rows: Tavernes goals. Columns: Valencia goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Tavernes vs Valencia goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 87%

Over 1.5 65%

Over 2.5 37%

Over 3.5 18%

Both teams to score: 43%
No goals (0–0): 13%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Tavernes vs Valencia

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Tavernes	7%	14.20
	Draw	10%	9.60
	Valencia	83%	1.21
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	37%	2.70
	Under 2.5	63%	1.59
Both teams to score	Yes	43%	2.31
	No	57%	1.76
Double chance	1X (Tavernes or draw)	17%	5.73
	12 (either side)	90%	1.12
	X2 (draw or Valencia)	93%	1.08
Handicap -1	Valencia win by 2+	23%	4.43
	Push (exactly one goal)	24%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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