FC ST. Gallen vs FC Lugano preview
In the upcoming match between FC ST. Gallen and FC Lugano, the 1X2 probabilities show FC ST. Gallen at 16%, a draw at 19%, and FC Lugano at 65%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 9% chance. FC Lugano's strong recent form, with 6 consecutive wins, suggests they are likely to perform well.
The model predicts a high likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 73% and both teams to score at 67%. However, FC ST. Gallen's past head-to-head record, with 5 wins against FC Lugano in their last 10 encounters, could challenge these predictions. The expected goals are 1.26 for FC ST. Gallen and 2.55 for FC Lugano.
FC ST. Gallen vs FC Lugano: model vs market
| Source | FC ST. Gallen | Draw | FC Lugano |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 16% | 20% | 63% |
| Market | 41% | 25% | 34% |
| Published | 35% | 24% | 41% |
| Edge | -6% | -1% | +7% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.32 vs 1.13.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.
- The market prices FC Lugano below our published probability: +7.3 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.79, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +15.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
FC ST. Gallen vs FC Lugano odds movement
Median bookmaker price on FC Lugano, 10 snapshots since 2026-11-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC ST. Gallen | 2.26 | 2.26 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.82 | 3.80 | -0.02 |
| FC Lugano | 2.75 | 2.75 | -0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
FC ST. Gallen and FC Lugano expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.45
- Attack rating (FC ST. Gallen / FC Lugano)
- 0.94 / 1.61
- Defence rating (FC ST. Gallen / FC Lugano)
- 0.91 / 0.67
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
FC ST. Gallen vs FC Lugano score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: FC ST. Gallen goals. Columns: FC Lugano goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
FC ST. Gallen vs FC Lugano goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 62%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for FC ST. Gallen vs FC Lugano
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC ST. Gallen | 35% | 2.85 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.24 | |
| FC Lugano | 41% | 2.42 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67% | 1.49 |
| Under 2.5 | 33% | 3.03 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62% | 1.62 |
| No | 38% | 2.62 | |
| Double chance | 1X (FC ST. Gallen or draw) | 59% | 1.71 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or FC Lugano) | 65% | 1.54 | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Lugano win by 2+ | 42% | 2.40 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
FC ST. Gallen and FC Lugano recent form
FC ST. Gallen
4W 0D 2L
FC Lugano
6W 0D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
FC ST. Gallen at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.83
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
FC Lugano away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 3.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 10 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 3.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: FC ST. Gallen at home only, FC Lugano away only.
FC ST. Gallen vs FC Lugano head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: FC ST. Gallen 5 · draws 3 · FC Lugano 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | FC Lugano | 4-1 | FC ST. Gallen | Switzerland Super League |
| 2026-05-10 | FC Lugano | 1-2 | FC ST. Gallen | Switzerland Super League |
| 2026-03-17 | FC ST. Gallen | 1-1 | FC Lugano | Switzerland Super League |
| 2025-11-26 | FC Lugano | 1-3 | FC ST. Gallen | Switzerland Super League |
| 2025-09-13 | FC ST. Gallen | 1-0 | FC Lugano | Switzerland Super League |
| 2025-04-13 | FC Lugano | 1-1 | FC ST. Gallen | Super League |
| 2025-02-05 | FC ST. Gallen | 2-1 | FC Lugano | Super League |
| 2024-09-01 | FC Lugano | 1-1 | FC ST. Gallen | Super League |
| 2024-05-04 | FC Lugano | 0-1 | FC ST. Gallen | Super League |
| 2024-03-09 | FC ST. Gallen | 2-3 | FC Lugano | Super League |
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- FC Luzern v BSC Young Boys — match page 2026-11-07
- FC Vaduz vs FC Sion — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Grasshoppers vs Lausanne — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- FC Thun v FC Basel 1893 — match page 2026-11-08
- Servette FC vs FC Zurich 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- FC ST. Gallen, previous: FC ST. Gallen v Servette FC analysis
- FC Lugano, previous: FC Lugano vs Kauno Žalgiris prediction
- FC Lugano, next: FK Jablonec vs FC Lugano prediction