Maroons vs Kigezi HomeBoyz preview
In the Uganda Premier League fixture between Maroons and Kigezi HomeBoyz, the 1X2 probabilities show Maroons at 74% and Kigezi HomeBoyz at 7%. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, with a 16% chance. Maroons have an expected goals figure of 2.11, while Kigezi HomeBoyz sits at just 0.50.
While Maroons are favored, the confidence grade is C, indicating uncertainty. Factors that could affect the outcome include Kigezi HomeBoyz's recent form, which shows 5 losses in their last 6 matches. Additionally, the chances for Over 2.5 goals stand at 48% and both teams to score at 36%, suggesting that while Maroons are likely to win, the match could still have unexpected developments.
Maroons vs Kigezi HomeBoyz: model vs market
| Source | Maroons | Draw | Kigezi HomeBoyz |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 74% | 19% | 7% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 74% | 19% | 7% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.11 vs 0.50.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Maroons and Kigezi HomeBoyz expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.61
- Attack rating (Maroons / Kigezi HomeBoyz)
- 1.40 / 0.52
- Defence rating (Maroons / Kigezi HomeBoyz)
- 1.11 / 1.23
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Maroons vs Kigezi HomeBoyz score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Maroons goals. Columns: Kigezi HomeBoyz goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Maroons vs Kigezi HomeBoyz goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 36%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Maroons vs Kigezi HomeBoyz
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Maroons | 74% | 1.35 |
| Draw | 19% | 5.26 | |
| Kigezi HomeBoyz | 7% | 14.73 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48% | 2.06 |
| Under 2.5 | 52% | 1.94 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 36% | 2.82 |
| No | 64% | 1.55 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Maroons or draw) | 93% | 1.07 |
| 12 (either side) | 81% | 1.23 | |
| X2 (draw or Kigezi HomeBoyz) | 26% | 3.88 | |
| Handicap -1 | Maroons win by 2+ | 50% | 2.01 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Maroons and Kigezi HomeBoyz recent form
Maroons
3W 1D 2L
Kigezi HomeBoyz
0W 1D 5L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Maroons at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
Kigezi HomeBoyz away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.33
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.2 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 6 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Maroons at home only, Kigezi HomeBoyz away only.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Kataka vs Police — team news & stats 2026-10-30
- Blacks Power v NEC — match page 2026-10-31
- BUL vs Entebbe UPPC 2026-10-31
- Mbarara City vs KCCA — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Lugazi vs SC Villa 2026-10-31
- UPDF v Kitara — match page 2026-10-31
- URA vs Vipers — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Ntugasaze vs Express 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Maroons, previous: Entebbe UPPC v Maroons analysis
- Kigezi HomeBoyz, previous: Police vs Kigezi HomeBoyz prediction