Chernihiv vs Kolos Kovalivka II preview
In the match between Chernihiv and Kolos Kovalivka II, the 1X2 probabilities show Chernihiv at 53%, while Kolos Kovalivka II sits at 21%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which aligns with expected goals of 1.74 for Chernihiv and 1.03 for Kolos Kovalivka II.
However, recent form indicates challenges for both teams, with Chernihiv losing their last 5 matches and Kolos Kovalivka II managing only 1 win in their last 6 games. The probabilities for Over 2.5 goals stand at 52% and both teams to score at 54%, suggesting potential for more action, but inconsistency could lead to a low-scoring affair.
Chernihiv vs Kolos Kovalivka II: model vs market
| Source | Chernihiv | Draw | Kolos Kovalivka II |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53% | 26% | 21% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 53% | 26% | 21% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.74 vs 1.03.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Chernihiv and Kolos Kovalivka II expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.76
- Attack rating (Chernihiv / Kolos Kovalivka II)
- 0.88 / 0.74
- Defence rating (Chernihiv / Kolos Kovalivka II)
- 1.29 / 1.49
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Chernihiv vs Kolos Kovalivka II score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Chernihiv goals. Columns: Kolos Kovalivka II goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Chernihiv vs Kolos Kovalivka II goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Chernihiv vs Kolos Kovalivka II
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Chernihiv | 53% | 1.89 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.86 | |
| Kolos Kovalivka II | 21% | 4.73 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52% | 1.92 |
| Under 2.5 | 48% | 2.09 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.85 |
| No | 46% | 2.17 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Chernihiv or draw) | 79% | 1.27 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Kolos Kovalivka II) | 47% | 2.12 | |
| Handicap -1 | Chernihiv win by 2+ | 30% | 3.34 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Chernihiv and Kolos Kovalivka II recent form
Chernihiv
1W 0D 5L
Kolos Kovalivka II
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Chernihiv at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-0
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Kolos Kovalivka II away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-5
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 0.83
- Goals against / match
- 2.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 14 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Chernihiv at home only, Kolos Kovalivka II away only.
Chernihiv vs Kolos Kovalivka II head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Chernihiv 1 · draws 0 · Kolos Kovalivka II 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-18 | Chernihiv | 2-0 | Kolos Kovalivka II | Druha Liga |
| 2024-10-06 | Kolos Kovalivka II | 1-0 | Chernihiv | Druha Liga |
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Before and after this match
- Chernihiv, previous: Yarud Mariupol' vs Chernihiv prediction
- Chernihiv, next: Chernihiv v Inhulets analysis
- Kolos Kovalivka II, previous: Kolos Kovalivka II – Metal Kharkiv, 2026-11-02
- Kolos Kovalivka II, next: Prykarpattia vs Kolos Kovalivka II prediction