Al-Dhafra vs Dubai United Prediction & Betting Tips 16/10/2026

Al-Dhafra vs Dubai United preview

In the match between Al-Dhafra and Dubai United, the 1X2 probabilities show Dubai United at 62%, while Al-Dhafra is at 17%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 10% chance of occurring. The expected goals indicate Al-Dhafra at 1.12 and Dubai United at 2.26, suggesting a strong attacking performance from the visitors.

Both teams to score has a probability of 61%, and Over 2.5 goals stands at 66%. However, Al-Dhafra's recent form includes four losses in their last five matches, which could impact their performance. Dubai United's mixed results, with a draw and a loss in their last two games, may also affect the outcome.

Al-Dhafra vs Dubai United: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Al-Dhafra	Draw	Dubai United
Model	17%	21%	62%
Market	—	—	—
Published	17%	21%	62%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.26 vs 1.12.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Al-Dhafra and Dubai United expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.12Al-Dhafra

2.26Dubai United

Total expected goals: 3.38
Attack rating (Al-Dhafra / Dubai United): 0.56 / 1.32
Defence rating (Al-Dhafra / Dubai United): 1.20 / 1.35

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Al-Dhafra vs Dubai United score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.3% 6.8% 8.7% 6.5% 6.3% 1 3.0% 9.5% 9.7% 7.3% 7.0% 2 2.1% 4.8% 5.5% 4.1% 3.9% 3 0.8% 1.8% 2.0% 1.5% 1.5% 4+ 0.3% 0.6% 0.7% 0.5% 0.5%

Rows: Al-Dhafra goals. Columns: Dubai United goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Al-Dhafra vs Dubai United goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%

Over 1.5 86%

Over 2.5 66%

Over 3.5 44%

Both teams to score: 61%
No goals (0–0): 4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Al-Dhafra vs Dubai United

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Al-Dhafra	17%	5.92
	Draw	21%	4.75
	Dubai United	62%	1.61
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	66%	1.52
	Under 2.5	34%	2.91
Both teams to score	Yes	61%	1.63
	No	39%	2.58
Double chance	1X (Al-Dhafra or draw)	38%	2.64
	12 (either side)	79%	1.27
	X2 (draw or Dubai United)	83%	1.20
Handicap -1	Dubai United win by 2+	40%	2.47
	Push (exactly one goal)	22%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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