Atletico Torque vs Penarol: model vs market
| Source | Atletico Torque | Draw | Penarol |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28% | 26% | 46% |
| Market | 32% | 28% | 39% |
| Published | 31% | 28% | 41% |
| Edge | -5% | -2% | +7% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.71 vs 1.28.
- The market prices Penarol below the model: +7.1 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Atletico Torque vs Penarol odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Penarol, 26 snapshots since 2026-09-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Torque | 2.50 | 2.80 | +0.30 |
| Draw | 3.40 | 3.20 | -0.20 |
| Penarol | 2.50 | 2.30 | -0.20 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Atletico Torque and Penarol expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.00
- Attack rating (Atletico Torque / Penarol)
- 1.48 / 1.54
- Defence rating (Atletico Torque / Penarol)
- 1.04 / 0.67
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Atletico Torque vs Penarol score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Atletico Torque goals. Columns: Penarol goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Atletico Torque vs Penarol goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 60%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Atletico Torque vs Penarol
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico Torque | 31% | 3.21 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.61 | |
| Penarol | 41% | 2.43 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58% | 1.74 |
| Under 2.5 | 42% | 2.36 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60% | 1.66 |
| No | 40% | 2.52 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Atletico Torque or draw) | 59% | 1.70 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Penarol) | 69% | 1.45 | |
| Handicap -1 | Penarol win by 2+ | 25% | 3.93 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Atletico Torque and Penarol recent form
Atletico Torque
4W 0D 2L
Penarol
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Atletico Torque at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-1-6
- Win rate
- 53%
- Goals for / match
- 1.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.47
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 15
- They have won 16 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Penarol away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-2-2
- Win rate
- 69%
- Goals for / match
- 1.54
- Goals against / match
- 0.54
- Clean sheets
- 8 of 13
- They have won 19 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Atletico Torque at home only, Penarol away only.
Atletico Torque vs Penarol head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Atletico Torque 3 · draws 1 · Penarol 6.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | Penarol | 1-0 | Atletico Torque | Copa Uruguay |
| 2026-02-07 | Penarol | 3-1 | Atletico Torque | Uruguay Primera División |
| 2025-11-09 | Atletico Torque | 0-2 | Penarol | Primera División - Clausura |
| 2025-05-17 | Penarol | 2-1 | Atletico Torque | Uruguay Primera División |
| 2024-04-17 | Penarol | 1-3 | Atletico Torque | Copa Uruguay |
| 2023-10-18 | Atletico Torque | 2-3 | Penarol | Primera División - Clausura |
| 2023-07-03 | Penarol | 2-0 | Atletico Torque | Primera División - Apertura |
| 2023-03-12 | Penarol | 2-2 | Atletico Torque | Primera División - Apertura |
| 2022-09-24 | Penarol | 0-1 | Atletico Torque | Primera División - Clausura |
| 2022-06-12 | Penarol | 1-2 | Atletico Torque | Primera División - Apertura |