Chicago Fire vs Vancouver Whitecaps preview
The fixture between Chicago Fire and Vancouver Whitecaps shows a 1X2 probability of 32% for Chicago Fire, 24% for a draw, and 43% for Vancouver Whitecaps. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 9% chance. The market indicates a strong likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 62% and both teams to score at 64%.
Chicago Fire's recent form includes one win and five games without a win, while Vancouver Whitecaps have two wins in their last three matches. The expected goals suggest Chicago Fire at 1.45 and Vancouver Whitecaps at 1.76. However, the confidence grade is C, indicating uncertainty, as probabilities are blended with market odds.
Chicago Fire vs Vancouver Whitecaps: model vs market
| Source | Chicago Fire | Draw | Vancouver Whitecaps |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31% | 25% | 44% |
| Market | 33% | 24% | 43% |
| Published | 32% | 24% | 43% |
| Edge | -2% | +1% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.76 vs 1.45.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.32, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Chicago Fire vs Vancouver Whitecaps odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Vancouver Whitecaps, 28 snapshots since 2026-09-23.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Fire | 3.33 | 2.90 | -0.43 |
| Draw | 4.00 | 3.90 | -0.10 |
| Vancouver Whitecaps | 1.91 | 2.19 | +0.28 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Chicago Fire and Vancouver Whitecaps expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.21
- Attack rating (Chicago Fire / Vancouver Whitecaps)
- 0.98 / 1.24
- Defence rating (Chicago Fire / Vancouver Whitecaps)
- 1.03 / 0.86
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Chicago Fire vs Vancouver Whitecaps score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Chicago Fire goals. Columns: Vancouver Whitecaps goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Chicago Fire vs Vancouver Whitecaps goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 64%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Chicago Fire vs Vancouver Whitecaps
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Chicago Fire | 32% | 3.11 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.09 | |
| Vancouver Whitecaps | 43% | 2.30 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62% | 1.61 |
| Under 2.5 | 38% | 2.65 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64% | 1.55 |
| No | 36% | 2.81 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Chicago Fire or draw) | 57% | 1.77 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Vancouver Whitecaps) | 68% | 1.47 | |
| Handicap -1 | Vancouver Whitecaps win by 2+ | 24% | 4.16 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Chicago Fire and Vancouver Whitecaps recent form
Chicago Fire
1W 3D 2L
Vancouver Whitecaps
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Chicago Fire at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-1-4
- Win rate
- 58%
- Goals for / match
- 1.83
- Goals against / match
- 1.17
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 12
- They have won 12 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Vancouver Whitecaps away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-3-2
- Win rate
- 55%
- Goals for / match
- 2.18
- Goals against / match
- 1.09
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 11
- They have won 15 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 8 penalties (88%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Chicago Fire at home only, Vancouver Whitecaps away only.
Injuries & availability
Chicago Fire
-
A. Franco
knee injury
-
A. Mekvabishvili
international duty
-
A. Saletros
lower-body injury
-
C. Brady
international duty
-
N. Allen
international duty
-
P. Dithejane
international duty
-
R. Lod
international duty
-
R. Turdean
inactive
Vancouver Whitecaps
-
B. Halbouni
knee injury
-
E. Ocampo
international duty
-
J. Badwal
injury
-
K. G. Cabrera Nakamura
foot injury
-
M. Gherasimencov
international duty
-
R. Priso
international duty
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Expected lineups
Chicago Fire · 4-4-2
- 44 J. Cohen
- 2 Leonardo Barroso
- 4 M. Mbokazi
- 3 J. Elliott
- 24 J. Dean
- 19 J. Bamba
- 6 A. Salétros
- 42 T. D'Avilla
- 11 P. Zinckernagel
- 18 J. Gómez
- 7 M. Haile-Selassie
Bench: S. Rogers, R. Lewandowski, P. Dithejane, A. Gutman, A. Hanche-Olsen, M. Pineda, J. Gal, D. Poręba, S. Oregel
Vancouver Whitecaps · 4-2-3-1
- 1 Y. Takaoka
- 28 T. Johnson
- 33 T. Blackmon
- 2 M. Laborda
- 70 Rui Modesto
- 23 A. Cvetković
- 8 O. Larraz
- 11 E. Sabbi
- 25 R. Gauld
- 7 C. Sabaly
- 24 B. White
Bench: S. Adekugbe, R. Veselinović, T. Müller, Bruno Steven Caicedo Quiñonez, S. Ramíirez, R. Elloumi, I. Boehmer, N. Djordjevic, Y. Diaby
Chicago Fire vs Vancouver Whitecaps head-to-head
Last 9 meetings: Chicago Fire 3 · draws 1 · Vancouver Whitecaps 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-23 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 1-3 | Chicago Fire | Major League Soccer |
| 2023-08-31 | Chicago Fire | 0-1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | Major League Soccer |
| 2022-07-24 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 1-3 | Chicago Fire | Major League Soccer |
| 2021-04-10 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 3-2 | Chicago Fire | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2020-07-23 | Chicago Fire | 0-2 | Vancouver Whitecaps | Major League Soccer |
| 2019-04-13 | Chicago Fire | 1-1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | Major League Soccer |
| 2018-07-08 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 3-2 | Chicago Fire | Major League Soccer |
| 2017-07-01 | Chicago Fire | 4-0 | Vancouver Whitecaps | Major League Soccer |
| 2016-05-12 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 2-1 | Chicago Fire | Major League Soccer |