New York Red Bulls vs St. Louis City: model vs market
| Source | New York Red Bulls | Draw | St. Louis City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 29% | 27% | 43% |
| Market | 27% | 23% | 50% |
| Published | 27% | 24% | 48% |
| Edge | +2% | +4% | -7% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.55 vs 1.24.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
New York Red Bulls vs St. Louis City odds movement
Median bookmaker price on St. Louis City, 25 snapshots since 2026-09-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York Red Bulls | 2.50 | 3.50 | +1.00 |
| Draw | 3.82 | 4.10 | +0.28 |
| St. Louis City | 2.41 | 1.88 | -0.54 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
New York Red Bulls and St. Louis City expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.79
- Attack rating (New York Red Bulls / St. Louis City)
- 0.71 / 1.35
- Defence rating (New York Red Bulls / St. Louis City)
- 0.84 / 1.00
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
New York Red Bulls vs St. Louis City score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: New York Red Bulls goals. Columns: St. Louis City goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
New York Red Bulls vs St. Louis City goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for New York Red Bulls vs St. Louis City
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | New York Red Bulls | 27% | 3.64 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.16 | |
| St. Louis City | 48% | 2.06 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53% | 1.89 |
| Under 2.5 | 47% | 2.12 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.75 |
| No | 43% | 2.33 | |
| Double chance | 1X (New York Red Bulls or draw) | 52% | 1.94 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or St. Louis City) | 73% | 1.38 | |
| Handicap -1 | St. Louis City win by 2+ | 22% | 4.47 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
New York Red Bulls and St. Louis City recent form
New York Red Bulls
2W 2D 2L
St. Louis City
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
New York Red Bulls at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-3-5
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.92
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 12
- They have won 9 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 26 matches.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
St. Louis City away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-5-4
- Win rate
- 31%
- Goals for / match
- 1.31
- Goals against / match
- 1.46
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 13
- They have won 12 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: New York Red Bulls at home only, St. Louis City away only.
Injuries & availability
New York Red Bulls
-
A. Marcucci
knee injury
-
A. Mehmeti
international duty
-
D. Ruiz
international duty
-
J. Che
ankle injury
-
J. Hall
international duty
-
J. Marshall-Rutty
hamstring injury
-
M. Dos Santos
international duty
-
M. Jimenez
international duty
-
O. Valencia
international duty
-
R. Donkor
international duty
-
R. Mosquera
international duty
St. Louis City
-
Celio Pompeu
knee injury
-
D. Downs
international duty
-
K. Hiebert
hip injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
New York Red Bulls vs St. Louis City head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: New York Red Bulls 1 · draws 1 · St. Louis City 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-24 | New York Red Bulls | 3-1 | St. Louis City | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2025-01-29 | New York Red Bulls | 0-1 | St. Louis City | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2024-02-10 | St. Louis City | 2-2 | New York Red Bulls | Friendlies Clubs |