Seattle Sounders vs Sporting Kansas City: model vs market
| Source | Seattle Sounders | Draw | Sporting Kansas City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56% | 22% | 22% |
| Market | 63% | 20% | 17% |
| Published | 61% | 21% | 18% |
| Edge | -7% | +2% | +5% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.16 vs 1.32.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Seattle Sounders vs Sporting Kansas City odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Seattle Sounders, 18 snapshots since 2026-09-23.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Sounders | 1.44 | 1.50 | +0.06 |
| Draw | 4.78 | 4.70 | -0.08 |
| Sporting Kansas City | 5.83 | 5.52 | -0.31 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Seattle Sounders and Sporting Kansas City expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.49
- Attack rating (Seattle Sounders / Sporting Kansas City)
- 0.99 / 1.06
- Defence rating (Seattle Sounders / Sporting Kansas City)
- 0.91 / 1.27
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Seattle Sounders vs Sporting Kansas City score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Seattle Sounders goals. Columns: Sporting Kansas City goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Seattle Sounders vs Sporting Kansas City goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 66%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Seattle Sounders vs Sporting Kansas City
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Seattle Sounders | 61% | 1.64 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.85 | |
| Sporting Kansas City | 18% | 5.45 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68% | 1.48 |
| Under 2.5 | 32% | 3.09 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66% | 1.52 |
| No | 34% | 2.93 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Seattle Sounders or draw) | 82% | 1.22 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.26 | |
| X2 (draw or Sporting Kansas City) | 39% | 2.57 | |
| Handicap -1 | Seattle Sounders win by 2+ | 35% | 2.88 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Seattle Sounders and Sporting Kansas City recent form
Seattle Sounders
2W 4D 0L
Sporting Kansas City
2W 0D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Seattle Sounders at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-3-4
- Win rate
- 46%
- Goals for / match
- 1.62
- Goals against / match
- 1.46
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 13
- They have won 9 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Sporting Kansas City away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-10
- Win rate
- 23%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.85
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 13
- They have won 6 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 26 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Seattle Sounders at home only, Sporting Kansas City away only.
Injuries & availability
Seattle Sounders
-
D. Joveljic
international duty
-
H. Dotson
yellow cards
-
J. Ferreira
muscle injury
-
N. Petkovic
knee injury
-
P. Rothrock
tendon injury
-
P. de La Vega
calf injury
-
S. Brunell
international duty
Sporting Kansas City
-
Capita
hamstring injury
-
Diego Borges
groin injury
-
J. Davis
injury
-
M. Mosquera
hamstring injury
-
O. Blorian
chest injury
-
O. Wolff
muscle injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Seattle Sounders vs Sporting Kansas City head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Seattle Sounders 5 · draws 1 · Sporting Kansas City 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | Sporting Kansas City | 1-1 | Seattle Sounders | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-08-25 | Seattle Sounders | 5-2 | Sporting Kansas City | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-07-13 | Sporting Kansas City | 2-3 | Seattle Sounders | Major League Soccer |
| 2024-09-15 | Seattle Sounders | 2-0 | Sporting Kansas City | Major League Soccer |
| 2024-06-09 | Sporting Kansas City | 2-1 | Seattle Sounders | Major League Soccer |
| 2023-05-07 | Seattle Sounders | 1-2 | Sporting Kansas City | Major League Soccer |
| 2023-03-26 | Sporting Kansas City | 1-4 | Seattle Sounders | Major League Soccer |
| 2022-10-02 | Sporting Kansas City | 1-0 | Seattle Sounders | Major League Soccer |
| 2022-06-25 | Seattle Sounders | 3-0 | Sporting Kansas City | Major League Soccer |
| 2021-10-23 | Seattle Sounders | 1-2 | Sporting Kansas City | Major League Soccer |