Columbus Crew vs St. Louis City Prediction & Betting Tips 22/10/2026

Columbus Crew vs St. Louis City preview

Columbus Crew faces St. Louis City with a 33% chance of winning for the Crew and a 42% chance for St. Louis. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which occurs with a 9% probability. Columbus Crew's expected goals stand at 1.56, while St. Louis City has 1.75.

Both teams to score has a 66% likelihood, and Over 2.5 goals is at 64%. Columbus Crew's recent form shows 1 win in their last 6 matches, while St. Louis City has won 4 of their last 6. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.

Columbus Crew vs St. Louis City: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Columbus Crew	Draw	St. Louis City
Model	30%	25%	46%
Market	—	—	—
Published	30%	25%	46%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.82 vs 1.44.
Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Columbus Crew and St. Louis City expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.44Columbus Crew

1.82St. Louis City

Total expected goals: 3.26
Attack rating (Columbus Crew / St. Louis City): 1.02 / 1.46
Defence rating (Columbus Crew / St. Louis City): 0.92 / 0.71

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Columbus Crew vs St. Louis City score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.9% 6.0% 6.4% 3.9% 2.7% 1 4.5% 11.1% 9.2% 5.6% 3.8% 2 4.0% 7.2% 6.6% 4.0% 2.7% 3 1.9% 3.5% 3.2% 1.9% 1.3% 4+ 0.9% 1.7% 1.6% 0.9% 0.6%

Rows: Columbus Crew goals. Columns: St. Louis City goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Columbus Crew vs St. Louis City goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%

Over 1.5 85%

Over 2.5 63%

Over 3.5 41%

Both teams to score: 65%
No goals (0–0): 5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Columbus Crew vs St. Louis City

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Columbus Crew	30%	3.39
	Draw	25%	4.04
	St. Louis City	46%	2.19
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	63%	1.58
	Under 2.5	37%	2.72
Both teams to score	Yes	65%	1.54
	No	35%	2.85
Double chance	1X (Columbus Crew or draw)	54%	1.84
	12 (either side)	75%	1.33
	X2 (draw or St. Louis City)	70%	1.42
Handicap -1	St. Louis City win by 2+	26%	3.91
	Push (exactly one goal)	20%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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