FC Cincinnati vs Columbus Crew preview
In the match between FC Cincinnati and Columbus Crew, the 1X2 probabilities show FC Cincinnati at 44%, Columbus Crew at 33%, and a draw at 23%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 7% chance according to our model. Both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals are both predicted at 73%, indicating a strong likelihood of an eventful match.
FC Cincinnati's recent form includes 1 win, 2 draws, and 3 losses, while Columbus Crew has 4 wins and 2 losses in their last 6 games. The expected goals are FC Cincinnati 1.83 and Columbus Crew 1.98, suggesting a closely contested match. The confidence grade for this prediction is C, meaning there is some uncertainty about the outcome.
FC Cincinnati vs Columbus Crew: model vs market
| Source | FC Cincinnati | Draw | Columbus Crew |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35% | 23% | 42% |
| Market | 41% | 24% | 36% |
| Published | 39% | 24% | 37% |
| Edge | -5% | -1% | +6% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.40, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
FC Cincinnati vs Columbus Crew odds movement
Median bookmaker price on FC Cincinnati, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cincinnati | 1.91 | 2.30 | +0.39 |
| Draw | 4.05 | 3.90 | -0.15 |
| Columbus Crew | 3.45 | 2.62 | -0.83 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
FC Cincinnati and Columbus Crew expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.81
- Attack rating (FC Cincinnati / Columbus Crew)
- 1.08 / 1.07
- Defence rating (FC Cincinnati / Columbus Crew)
- 1.34 / 0.97
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
FC Cincinnati vs Columbus Crew score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: FC Cincinnati goals. Columns: Columbus Crew goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
FC Cincinnati vs Columbus Crew goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 73%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for FC Cincinnati vs Columbus Crew
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Cincinnati | 39% | 2.55 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.23 | |
| Columbus Crew | 37% | 2.69 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73% | 1.36 |
| Under 2.5 | 27% | 3.74 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73% | 1.37 |
| No | 27% | 3.73 | |
| Double chance | 1X (FC Cincinnati or draw) | 63% | 1.59 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Columbus Crew) | 61% | 1.65 | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Cincinnati win by 2+ | 19% | 5.30 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
FC Cincinnati and Columbus Crew recent form
FC Cincinnati
1W 2D 3L
Columbus Crew
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
FC Cincinnati at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-3-3
- Win rate
- 54%
- Goals for / match
- 2.77
- Goals against / match
- 2.08
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 13
- They have won 9 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 1.6 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 28 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Columbus Crew away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-3-9
- Win rate
- 14%
- Goals for / match
- 1.57
- Goals against / match
- 2.14
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 14
- They have won 9 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 29 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
League matches this season before kick-off: FC Cincinnati at home only, Columbus Crew away only.
Injuries & availability
FC Cincinnati absences
- J. Martinez knee injury
-
M. Robinson
injury
Columbus Crew absences
-
R. Camacho
chest injury
-
W. Abou Ali
knee injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
FC Cincinnati vs Columbus Crew head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: FC Cincinnati 3 · draws 2 · Columbus Crew 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | Columbus Crew | 2-1 | FC Cincinnati | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-11-08 | FC Cincinnati | 2-1 | Columbus Crew | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-11-02 | Columbus Crew | 4-0 | FC Cincinnati | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-10-27 | FC Cincinnati | 1-0 | Columbus Crew | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-07-12 | FC Cincinnati | 2-4 | Columbus Crew | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-05-17 | Columbus Crew | 1-1 | FC Cincinnati | Major League Soccer |
| 2024-09-14 | FC Cincinnati | 0-0 | Columbus Crew | Major League Soccer |
| 2024-05-11 | Columbus Crew | 1-2 | FC Cincinnati | Major League Soccer |
| 2023-12-02 | FC Cincinnati | 2-3 | Columbus Crew | Major League Soccer |
| 2023-08-20 | Columbus Crew | 3-0 | FC Cincinnati | Major League Soccer |
Other Matchday 30 fixtures
- Orlando City SC v DC United — match page 2026-10-17
- Houston Dynamo vs FC Dallas — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Sporting Kansas City vs Real Salt Lake 2026-10-18
- Austin v Vancouver Whitecaps — match page 2026-10-18
- Seattle Sounders vs CF Montreal — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- San Jose Earthquakes vs Nashville SC 2026-10-18
- Los Angeles Galaxy v San Diego — match page 2026-10-18
- Portland Timbers vs Colorado Rapids — team news & stats 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- FC Cincinnati, previous: FC Cincinnati – New England Revolution, 2026-10-14
- FC Cincinnati, next: FC Cincinnati v DC United analysis
- Columbus Crew, previous: Columbus Crew v Charlotte analysis
- Columbus Crew, next: Columbus Crew – St. Louis City, 2026-10-22