Austin vs Vancouver Whitecaps preview
In the match between Austin and Vancouver Whitecaps, the 1X2 probabilities show Austin at 34%, a draw at 27%, and Vancouver Whitecaps at 39%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 9% chance. Both teams to score has a probability of 61%, while Over 2.5 goals stands at 57%.
Austin's recent form includes 3 draws and 2 losses, while Vancouver Whitecaps have 2 wins and 3 draws in their last five matches. The expected goals are 1.44 for Austin and 1.55 for Vancouver Whitecaps. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty. Factors like unexpected player performances or tactical changes could influence the outcome.
Austin vs Vancouver Whitecaps: model vs market
| Source | Austin | Draw | Vancouver Whitecaps |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31% | 27% | 42% |
| Market | 20% | 22% | 58% |
| Published | 23% | 23% | 54% |
| Edge | +11% | +5% | -16% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.64, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Austin vs Vancouver Whitecaps odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Vancouver Whitecaps, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Austin | 4.60 | 4.75 | +0.15 |
| Draw | 4.25 | 4.25 | +0.00 |
| Vancouver Whitecaps | 1.62 | 1.62 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Austin and Vancouver Whitecaps expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.85
- Attack rating (Austin / Vancouver Whitecaps)
- 0.89 / 1.03
- Defence rating (Austin / Vancouver Whitecaps)
- 1.08 / 0.84
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Austin vs Vancouver Whitecaps score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Austin goals. Columns: Vancouver Whitecaps goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Austin vs Vancouver Whitecaps goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 58%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Austin vs Vancouver Whitecaps
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Austin | 23% | 4.42 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.27 | |
| Vancouver Whitecaps | 54% | 1.85 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54% | 1.84 |
| Under 2.5 | 46% | 2.18 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58% | 1.71 |
| No | 42% | 2.41 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Austin or draw) | 46% | 2.17 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Vancouver Whitecaps) | 77% | 1.29 | |
| Handicap -1 | Vancouver Whitecaps win by 2+ | 21% | 4.69 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Austin and Vancouver Whitecaps recent form
Austin
1W 3D 2L
Vancouver Whitecaps
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Austin at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-6-4
- Win rate
- 29%
- Goals for / match
- 1.43
- Goals against / match
- 1.36
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 14
- They have won 7 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 29 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Vancouver Whitecaps away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-5-3
- Win rate
- 43%
- Goals for / match
- 1.86
- Goals against / match
- 1.14
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 14
- They have won 15 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 8 penalties (88%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Austin at home only, Vancouver Whitecaps away only.
Injuries & availability
Austin absences
- M. Desler lower-body injury
- Z. Kolmanic thigh injury
Vancouver Whitecaps absences
-
B. Halbouni
knee injury
-
J. Badwal
hamstring injury
-
K. G. Cabrera Nakamura
foot injury
- S. Adekugbe muscle injury
- T. Muller muscle injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Austin vs Vancouver Whitecaps head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Austin 2 · draws 3 · Vancouver Whitecaps 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 1-2 | Austin | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-05-18 | Austin | 0-0 | Vancouver Whitecaps | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-04-12 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 5-1 | Austin | Major League Soccer |
| 2024-09-01 | Austin | 0-1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | Major League Soccer |
| 2024-05-05 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 0-0 | Austin | Major League Soccer |
| 2023-07-13 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 2-1 | Austin | Major League Soccer |
| 2023-04-16 | Austin | 0-0 | Vancouver Whitecaps | Major League Soccer |
| 2022-10-02 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 2-0 | Austin | Major League Soccer |
| 2022-04-24 | Austin | 3-0 | Vancouver Whitecaps | Major League Soccer |
| 2021-09-04 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 2-1 | Austin | Major League Soccer |
Other Matchday 30 fixtures
- Orlando City SC v DC United — match page 2026-10-17
- New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Atlanta United FC vs Inter Miami 2026-10-17
- New England Revolution v Chicago Fire — match page 2026-10-17
- New York City FC vs Los Angeles FC 2026-10-17
- Houston Dynamo vs FC Dallas — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Sporting Kansas City vs Real Salt Lake 2026-10-18
- Seattle Sounders vs CF Montreal — team news & stats 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Austin, previous: Los Angeles FC v Austin analysis
- Vancouver Whitecaps, previous: St. Louis City v Vancouver Whitecaps analysis