Atlanta United FC vs Inter Miami preview
In the match between Atlanta United FC and Inter Miami, the 1X2 probabilities show Inter Miami at 47%, while Atlanta United FC is at 30%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 9% chance. Both teams have a 70% probability of scoring, and there’s also a 70% chance of Over 2.5 goals.
Atlanta United FC's expected goals stand at 1.61, compared to Inter Miami's 2.03. Recent form shows Atlanta with 1 win in their last 6 matches, while Inter Miami has only 1 win in their last 6 as well. This could affect the outcome, as both teams have had mixed results recently.
Atlanta United FC vs Inter Miami: model vs market
| Source | Atlanta United FC | Draw | Inter Miami |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35% | 24% | 41% |
| Market | 28% | 23% | 49% |
| Published | 30% | 23% | 47% |
| Edge | +7% | +1% | -9% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.98, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Atlanta United FC vs Inter Miami odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Inter Miami, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta United FC | 3.65 | 3.34 | -0.31 |
| Draw | 4.20 | 4.15 | -0.05 |
| Inter Miami | 1.78 | 1.90 | +0.12 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Atlanta United FC and Inter Miami expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.51
- Attack rating (Atlanta United FC / Inter Miami)
- 0.99 / 1.35
- Defence rating (Atlanta United FC / Inter Miami)
- 0.98 / 0.98
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Atlanta United FC vs Inter Miami score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Atlanta United FC goals. Columns: Inter Miami goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Atlanta United FC vs Inter Miami goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 69%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Atlanta United FC vs Inter Miami
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atlanta United FC | 30% | 3.35 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.36 | |
| Inter Miami | 47% | 2.12 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68% | 1.47 |
| Under 2.5 | 32% | 3.13 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69% | 1.44 |
| No | 31% | 3.25 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Atlanta United FC or draw) | 53% | 1.89 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Inter Miami) | 70% | 1.43 | |
| Handicap -1 | Inter Miami win by 2+ | 22% | 4.51 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Atlanta United FC and Inter Miami recent form
Atlanta United FC
2W 2D 2L
Inter Miami
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Atlanta United FC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-2-8
- Win rate
- 29%
- Goals for / match
- 1.43
- Goals against / match
- 1.86
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 14
- They have won 8 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Inter Miami away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-3-3
- Win rate
- 57%
- Goals for / match
- 2.07
- Goals against / match
- 1.71
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 14
- They have won 14 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 2.1 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Atlanta United FC at home only, Inter Miami away only.
Injuries & availability
Atlanta United FC absences
- D. Chica knee injury
- W. Reilly ankle injury
Inter Miami absences
-
M. Silvetti
injury
-
T. Allende
knee injury
- Y. Bright foot injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Atlanta United FC vs Inter Miami head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Atlanta United FC 4 · draws 2 · Inter Miami 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Inter Miami | 2-2 | Atlanta United FC | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-10-11 | Inter Miami | 4-0 | Atlanta United FC | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-03-16 | Atlanta United FC | 1-2 | Inter Miami | Major League Soccer |
| 2024-11-10 | Inter Miami | 2-3 | Atlanta United FC | Major League Soccer |
| 2024-11-02 | Atlanta United FC | 2-1 | Inter Miami | Major League Soccer |
| 2024-10-26 | Inter Miami | 2-1 | Atlanta United FC | Major League Soccer |
| 2024-09-18 | Atlanta United FC | 2-2 | Inter Miami | Major League Soccer |
| 2024-05-29 | Inter Miami | 1-3 | Atlanta United FC | Major League Soccer |
| 2023-09-16 | Atlanta United FC | 5-2 | Inter Miami | Major League Soccer |
| 2023-07-25 | Inter Miami | 4-0 | Atlanta United FC | Leagues Cup |
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Before and after this match
- Atlanta United FC, previous: CF Montreal vs Atlanta United FC: odds and pick
- Inter Miami, previous: Inter Miami v New York City FC analysis