Houston Dynamo vs FC Dallas preview
In the fixture between Houston Dynamo and FC Dallas, the 1X2 probabilities show Houston Dynamo at 44% to win, while FC Dallas sits at 29%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1, with a 9% chance. Both teams have shown contrasting recent form, with Houston Dynamo recording D-D-L-D-L-W and FC Dallas on a stronger run of W-L-W-D-W-W.
The expected goals indicate Houston Dynamo at 1.50 and FC Dallas at 1.24, suggesting a competitive match. The model also predicts a 52% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance for both teams to score. However, the confidence grade is C, meaning unexpected outcomes could arise, particularly given FC Dallas's recent form against Houston Dynamo.
Houston Dynamo vs FC Dallas: model vs market
| Source | Houston Dynamo | Draw | FC Dallas |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42% | 28% | 30% |
| Market | 43% | 27% | 31% |
| Published | 42% | 27% | 30% |
| Edge | -1% | +1% | 0% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.33, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Houston Dynamo vs FC Dallas odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Houston Dynamo, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Dynamo | 2.11 | 2.20 | +0.09 |
| Draw | 3.55 | 3.50 | -0.05 |
| FC Dallas | 3.20 | 3.07 | -0.13 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Houston Dynamo and FC Dallas expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.74
- Attack rating (Houston Dynamo / FC Dallas)
- 0.90 / 1.04
- Defence rating (Houston Dynamo / FC Dallas)
- 0.87 / 0.95
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Houston Dynamo vs FC Dallas score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Houston Dynamo goals. Columns: FC Dallas goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Houston Dynamo vs FC Dallas goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 56%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Houston Dynamo vs FC Dallas
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Houston Dynamo | 42% | 2.35 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.70 | |
| FC Dallas | 30% | 3.28 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52% | 1.94 |
| Under 2.5 | 48% | 2.06 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56% | 1.77 |
| No | 44% | 2.29 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Houston Dynamo or draw) | 70% | 1.44 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or FC Dallas) | 58% | 1.74 | |
| Handicap -1 | Houston Dynamo win by 2+ | 21% | 4.72 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Houston Dynamo and FC Dallas recent form
Houston Dynamo
1W 3D 2L
FC Dallas
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Houston Dynamo at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-3-3
- Win rate
- 57%
- Goals for / match
- 1.21
- Goals against / match
- 0.86
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 14
- They have won 13 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
FC Dallas away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-3-5
- Win rate
- 47%
- Goals for / match
- 1.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 15
- They have won 14 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Houston Dynamo at home only, FC Dallas away only.
Injuries & availability
Houston Dynamo absences
-
Felipe Andrade
injury
-
J. Maurer
concussion
FC Dallas absences
-
A. A. Julio Santos
lower-body injury
-
Geovane Jesus
knee injury
- L. Farrington lower-body injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Houston Dynamo vs FC Dallas head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Houston Dynamo 3 · draws 4 · FC Dallas 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-22 | FC Dallas | 4-3 | Houston Dynamo | Major League Soccer |
| 2026-02-11 | FC Dallas | 1-2 | Houston Dynamo | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2025-05-18 | FC Dallas | 0-2 | Houston Dynamo | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-02-23 | Houston Dynamo | 1-2 | FC Dallas | Major League Soccer |
| 2025-02-07 | FC Dallas | 2-2 | Houston Dynamo | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2024-05-19 | Houston Dynamo | 1-1 | FC Dallas | Major League Soccer |
| 2024-04-28 | FC Dallas | 2-0 | Houston Dynamo | Major League Soccer |
| 2023-10-01 | Houston Dynamo | 0-0 | FC Dallas | Major League Soccer |
| 2023-05-21 | FC Dallas | 1-1 | Houston Dynamo | Major League Soccer |
| 2023-02-19 | Houston Dynamo | 2-0 | FC Dallas | Friendlies Clubs |
Other Matchday 30 fixtures
- Orlando City SC v DC United — match page 2026-10-17
- New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Atlanta United FC vs Inter Miami 2026-10-17
- New England Revolution v Chicago Fire — match page 2026-10-17
- New York City FC vs Los Angeles FC 2026-10-17
- Sporting Kansas City vs Real Salt Lake 2026-10-18
- Austin v Vancouver Whitecaps — match page 2026-10-18
- Seattle Sounders vs CF Montreal — team news & stats 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Houston Dynamo, previous: San Diego vs Houston Dynamo: odds and pick
- FC Dallas, previous: FC Dallas vs Seattle Sounders: odds and pick